FX Weekly - New macro view, new FX outlook
中文标题
外汇周报 - 新宏观观点，新外汇展望
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
ABN AMRO has downgraded its EUR/USD forecasts to 1.15 after the Fed hiked its policy rate by 25bp and signalled a more hawkish path than expected. The bank now sees the pair trading broadly sideways until Q2 2027, as higher-for-longer energy prices and shifting ECB/Fed expectations offset each other, before the dollar declines towards end-2027. Energy currencies NOK, CAD and BRL should stay supported, while NOK, AUD and NZD benefit from hawkish central banks.
- Institution
- ABN AMRO Research
- Published
- 09/17/2026
- Research topic
- US Dollar (DXY) · USD/JPY · Fed Policy
- Time horizon
- year-end 2027 · Q2 2027 · April 2027
Key arguments
- The Fed hiked by 25bp with hawkish dots, supporting the dollar and pushing EUR/USD below 1.15.
- ABN AMRO now expects both the Fed and ECB to raise rates further, but favours two ECB hikes versus one Fed hike, a mix that could weigh more on the dollar if markets converge.
- Higher-for-longer energy prices historically hurt the euro and yen more than the dollar, capping EUR/USD upside.
- Energy-exporting currencies NOK, CAD and BRL should remain supported, though US trade tensions may limit CAD gains; hawkish central banks support NOK, AUD and NZD.
Key numbers
- Fed policy rate hike
- 25bp
- EUR/USD forecast
- 1.15
- Expected Fed hikes
- 1 further hike
- Expected ECB hikes
- 2 further hikes
- Expected BoE hikes
- 2 hikes (November and February)
Main risks
- US midterm elections could exert downward pressure on the dollar in coming months.
- Political uncertainty around French elections (April 2027) is likely to weigh on the euro.
- Fiscal sustainability concerns may affect the euro and sterling, reducing the relative impact on EUR/USD.
Corresponding source evidence
Following significant changes to our macro base case we have changed our currency forecasts, We expect the euro to be range-bound against the dollar over the next few months.
Towards the end of 2027 we expect that USD will decline.
· year-end 2027Energy currencies NOK, CAD and BRL should remain supported, but trade tensions may limit Canadian dollar gains.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · DXY
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABN AMRO ResearchFX Weekly - New macro view, new FX outlook | 09/17/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| NatixisAIR - The Winner Takes Portugal (And A Load of Debt) | 10/19/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| MUFGUSD continues to trade at modestly weaker levels at start of the week · FX Daily Snapshot | 10/19/2026 | Bearish | — | Not stated |
| Saxo BankMarket Quick Take - Chipmakers extend their slide as Brent holds above 107 | 10/19/2026 | Bearish | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ABN AMRO Research on 09/17/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction