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Natixis expects one more Fed hike in December and an elevated U.S. Treasury curve, keeping the Mexican peso under pressure. Banxico held its policy rate at 6.50% unanimously in September, stating it will not react mechanically to U.S. monetary policy but will…
Global markets stayed resilient after a rates sell-off, with the 10-year UST yield rising about 8bp to 5.20% and futures pricing a 71% chance of an October Fed hike. Supporting data: jobless claims at 197k and new-home sales up 6.4%. Norway hiked, Sweden…
Oil fell as US and Iranian negotiators explored a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent near USD 105/b and WTI below USD 93/b. Iran reportedly proposed a seven-day reopening if conditions are met, though prior diplomacy failed. Supply risks…
Energy-market rebalancing is slipping further away. The partial Hormuz blockade, Red Sea disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep oil and gas prices elevated, lifting inflation and delaying rate cuts. Under the baseline, assuming oil below $80 from…
The dollar starts next week dominant, near two-month highs, supported by a hawkish Fed and Treasury yields at multi-decade peaks; markets price an 83% chance of a further October hike. EUR/USD sits near 1.14 after a 300-pip monthly slide, GBP/USD near 1.32,…
USD strength has slowed and looks stretched near-term. Thursday's long-end Treasury yield rise failed to lift the dollar as it had before, while the short end stalled after Wednesday's PMI-driven jump, implying the market is wary of pricing more Fed…
Saxo Bank's quick take notes Brent trading near USD 105.4 after a USD 10 weekly range, as talk of a Qatar-mediated phased Strait of Hormuz deal with Iran offsets Houthi missile attacks on Saudi cities. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.50%, its highest…
ING expects the RBA to raise rates 25bp, citing tight labour markets, upside Q2 GDP surprise and firm inflation; August CPI seen at 4.1% YoY. China's official manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.1 and non-manufacturing at 49.2. Japan's services PPI seen at…
A global bond sell-off has pushed back-end yields higher, triggering risk-off flows that help the dollar consolidate recent gains. Oil remains bid after a failed UN summit and scepticism over US-Iran talks, keeping upside risks for rates. ING sees Brent…
Global monetary conditions are tightening except in China, with elevated U.S. long-term yields and less offshore dollar support from the Gulf and China. Despite increased risk in the Gulf, crude flows through Hormuz have adapted but remain below pre-war…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
MUFG warns that a tougher external backdrop—higher US Treasury yields and Brent above $100/bbl—leaves Asia FX with a narrow path. The next US payrolls report is the key catalyst; consensus expects 100k jobs and unemployment at 4.1%. MUFG keeps a bias for…
The yen is the top performer after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said President Trump expressed concern over yen weakness, while Growth Minister Kiuchi noted the communication that rate hikes are on the radar. US Treasury yields fell modestly, tightly…
US Treasury yields extended their selloff, with 2s10s steepening about 6bp, and Brent rose another 3.4% on Middle East geopolitical risk, keeping the external backdrop difficult for Asia FX. DXY advanced 0.2% to 101.285, with THB (-0.7%) and IDR (-0.6%)…
MUFG flags contagion risk after the 2-year UST yield jumped 72bp in 21 days, the largest such move since March 2023. Forced selling by fast money could trigger liquidation of profitable AI equity and FX carry positions. The dollar has modestly retraced as…
Australia's August employment rose 39.5k but a 0.2ppt participation rebound lifted unemployment to 4.6%, keeping gradual labour-market easing intact. Westpac sees RBA supply assumptions as too weak. The BoJ hiked 25bp to 1.25% and may reach 1.5% by mid-2027.…
Markets were subdued as oil and bond yields rose. Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Red Sea oil facilities pushed Brent to $107/bbl and WTI to $94.72, outweighing hints of a US-Iran phased deal. The US-China trade truce was extended to January 2027 during Xi's…
Banxico left its policy rate at 6.50% for a third straight meeting, unanimously, as expected. It kept its call that inflation converges to the 3.0% target in Q4-2027, cutting short-term headline forecasts but raising core. The board stressed that policy…
US senators and governors have proposed banning diesel exports to relieve farmers. Due to legal delegation, President Trump could enact such a ban without further Congressional action. The US exports 1.0–1.5 mb/d, much to Latin America. Mexico, Chile, and…
MUFG's FX quant framework argues the 2026 yen appreciation differs from past corrections: the traditional drivers of structural yen weakness have shifted. The US-Japan 10-year nominal yield differential has narrowed to roughly 209bps from about 399bps during…