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New York Fed President Williams' less hawkish remarks (one more hike 'late this year', no urgency) helped pull US 2-year yields about 5bp lower to 4.88% and trim October hike odds, though Barr and Musalem stayed hawkish. August job openings fell to 7.1mn (vs…
The dollar index reached 101.61, close to June's 101.80 year-to-date high, before New York Fed President Williams pushed back against an October hike, saying there is "no need for urgency." Markets pared October hike pricing to about 12bp from 18bp. Williams…
BNP Paribas data as of 25 September 2026 show Brent at $104.26, gold at $4,280/oz, and US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.16%. EUR/USD at 1.14, USD/JPY at 157.17. Yields rose across most maturities, with 1-week changes positive for 2Y and 5Y but negative for 10Y.…
Advanced economies showed broad September strength. Eurozone composite PMI reached 53.1, its highest since April 2023, with services output prices at 56.1 spreading the energy shock. Germany's composite rose to 53.8 and Ifo hit 89.9; France returned to…
This Scotiabank Economics calendar lists October 2026 release dates for the US, Canada, eurozone, UK and Japan. Highlights include FOMC and Bank of Canada meetings alongside the ECB, plus US CPI, eurozone CPI and GDP, and Canada GDP, CPI and jobs. The…
The September Fed hike temporarily closes the window for broad USD weakness, as markets shift from pricing cuts to hikes. Amundi still expects the Fed to deliver less tightening than priced, so any renewed dollar strength should be limited and weakness should…
Amid a fragmenting global order, growth is concentrated and inflationary pressures persist. Amundi expects major central banks to keep tightening, but by less than markets price. Fiscal policy is gaining importance, yet faces limited room. Summer events —…
Natixis' survey of 45 respondents on Brazil's October 4 election shows a split market reaction. A Lula win is dominated by fiscal-responsibility concerns (76%), with 83% expecting USD/BRL above 5.30 by end-October. A Flavio Bolsonaro win is seen as…
Scotiabank's Derek Holt previews a data-heavy session that includes Canadian GDP for July and a Bank of Canada speech on repo markets and monetary policy implementation. He expects modest market moves, with US consumer confidence, JOLTS and Fed speakers also…
Natixis' China Corporate Monitor 2026 argues that wide-ranging monetary, fiscal, property and consumption support has lowered financing pressure and stabilized parts of the economy, but has failed to ignite a corporate recovery. Weaker domestic demand has…
US equities fell Monday as US-Iran ceasefire talks stalled, pushing Brent toward USD107/bbl. The S&P 500 lost 0.8%, erasing its September gain; the Nasdaq fell 0.9% and the Dow 0.7%. The 10Y UST yield rose about 7-9bp to 5.24-5.25%, a 19-year high, with the…
Dovish ECB comments and Gulf tensions have tilted EUR/USD risks to the downside; the pair may test summer lows of 1.1320-30 if US data surprise. The RBA hiked to 4.60% but admitted considering a hold, pressuring AUD below 0.700. Oil at $107/bbl keeps bond…
Japanese officials escalated verbal warnings against yen weakness, with the chief currency official citing a "very clear" message from Japan and the US and the finance minister calling yen undervaluation a problem. USD/JPY fell to an intra-day low of 156.51…
Gold steadied near USD 4,125 after hitting a seven-week low as US 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5.25%, a level rarely seen since 2002. The 30-year hit 5.58% and the 2-year 4.95%. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,…
Based on BIS locational banking data, Asia's claims on the GCC grew faster than the rest of the world, with Hong Kong's claims rising $72bn from 2019 to Q1 2026 and the GCC's share up to 4.4% from 2.0%; Korea's share fell to 4.8% from 6.6%. Bloomberg…
Higher oil prices and US yields above 5.2% are deepening Asian FX divergence. Brent stayed above $100/bbl while the dollar index rose to about 101.1, a negative terms-of-trade shock for Asia's oil importers. Asia currencies remain above Q1 2025 lows, helped…
Brent held above $107/b and WTI near $94/b as stalled US-Iran talks kept the Strait of Hormuz uncertain, though Saudi Arabia restored roughly half of its 7mb/d East-West pipeline, with flows of at least 3.5mb/d resuming at Yanbu; full restoration could take…
MUFG shifts its BoJ policy-rate scenario earlier: after the September 2026 hike to 1.25%, it now expects 1.50% in December 2026 (previously January 2027) and 1.75% in April 2027 (previously June 2027), with 1.75% as the terminal rate. It also revises the Fed…
Geopolitical fragmentation is reorganizing trade, investment and supply chains around security and resilience rather than reversing globalization. Duplicated capacity, larger inventories and higher-cost supply chains may improve resilience but reduce…
Invesco argues the structural AI bull market remains intact despite higher oil prices and interest rates stalling the broadening trade. Meta's Muse personal AI agent, launched September 8, became the top free US app, lifting Meta shares over 11% in a session…