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Oil softened with NYMEX WTI under $90/bbl as Saudi Yanbu loadings resumed and EIA reported a 922k-barrel US crude build, versus a 455k-barrel draw expected. Gasoline and distillate stocks fell 1.68m and 2.25m barrels. LME copper rose a third month on tight…
Global markets in late September 2026 show a synchronized hawkish pivot: the FOMC, ECB and BoJ have all hiked rates, pushing UST 10Y to a 2026 high of 5.24%, mostly from higher real yields. OCBC adds a 25bp Fed hike in 4Q2026, one BoE hike by year-end, two…
Citi's Tony Yuen sees oil supply losses partly offset by China cutting about 1.5 million barrels per day of imports, leaving a net loss near 4.5 million bpd. Brent spiked to almost $110 intraday after a strike on Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline, then eased…
The report estimates September nonfarm payrolls at 60k, below the 90k consensus and the prior 162k. It expects unemployment to edge up to 4.2% on higher prime-age participation, with average hourly earnings around 0.3% m/m. Unless CPI on October 14 is broadly…
Saxo's Q4 outlook keeps risk exposure but demands more from it. With the US 10-year Treasury yield touching 5% on 14 September 2026, US headline inflation at 3.4% and Brent above $100, equity returns must be earned through profit growth and cash flow. AI…
MUFG's October 2026 FX outlook sees a US dollar-led world: DXY closed September up 2.0% after the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, with 10-year UST yields up 53bps. Six G10 central banks hiked, and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy prices elevated.…
MUFG forecasts Asian currencies to post a modest aggregate appreciation in Q4 2026, with performance highly differentiated across pairs. The quarterly outlook sees continued US dollar and energy headwinds, while Asian growth remains resilient, led by…
Northwest European gas storage sits at 62% capacity, about 10bcm below year-ago levels, setting up a tight Q4-26 winter. Under the base case TTF averages €76/MWh, peaking at €80/MWh; an adverse cold winter scenario averages €122/MWh. The energy-driven shock…
China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September, the first expansion in three months and in line with consensus. The non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly returned to 50.2 versus 49.2 expected. Production hit a 2026 high of 51.7, while price…
US data softened: Conference Board consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest in over a decade, and August JOLTS openings dropped to 7.08m from 7.34m. NY Fed's Williams saw no urgency to tighten, cutting implied odds of another hike next meeting…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
New York Fed President Williams' less hawkish remarks (one more hike 'late this year', no urgency) helped pull US 2-year yields about 5bp lower to 4.88% and trim October hike odds, though Barr and Musalem stayed hawkish. August job openings fell to 7.1mn (vs…
Advanced economies showed broad September strength. Eurozone composite PMI reached 53.1, its highest since April 2023, with services output prices at 56.1 spreading the energy shock. Germany's composite rose to 53.8 and Ifo hit 89.9; France returned to…
Intesa Sanpaolo expects Italy's GDP to grow 0.9% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, with the unemployment rate revised to 5.5% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027. Services and exports drive activity, but productivity stagnates and structural gaps persist. Exports surprised on…
Natixis' survey of 45 respondents on Brazil's October 4 election shows a split market reaction. A Lula win is dominated by fiscal-responsibility concerns (76%), with 83% expecting USD/BRL above 5.30 by end-October. A Flavio Bolsonaro win is seen as…
Natixis' China Corporate Monitor 2026 argues that wide-ranging monetary, fiscal, property and consumption support has lowered financing pressure and stabilized parts of the economy, but has failed to ignite a corporate recovery. Weaker domestic demand has…
US equities fell as Brent settled 0.9% higher at USD105.3/bbl and the US 10Y yield rose about 7bps to 5.25%, with markets pricing roughly a 70% chance of another 25bp hike in October. US IG spreads widened 2bps to 82bps and HY 9bps to 303bps. Singapore August…
US equities fell Monday as US-Iran ceasefire talks stalled, pushing Brent toward USD107/bbl. The S&P 500 lost 0.8%, erasing its September gain; the Nasdaq fell 0.9% and the Dow 0.7%. The 10Y UST yield rose about 7-9bp to 5.24-5.25%, a 19-year high, with the…
Europe's digital technology position is stronger than the debate suggests, primarily because Europeans are global leaders in AI adoption. AI can help mitigate labour scarcity, support SMEs and reduce fragmentation, with open-weight models limiting costs. On…
The September 2026 Trump-Xi summit extended the trade truce but left advanced chip export controls off the agenda, as both sides treat AI capability as non-negotiable. The contest has shifted to third countries: Washington is pressing Pax Silica members to…