The Trump-Xi truce stops at AI; who gets caught in the middle?

中文标题

特朗普与习近平的休战止步于AI；谁会被夹在中间？

Natixis09/29/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

The September 2026 Trump-Xi summit extended the trade truce but left advanced chip export controls off the agenda, as both sides treat AI capability as non-negotiable. The contest has shifted to third countries: Washington is pressing Pax Silica members to avoid 'duplicative' initiatives, testing Kazakhstan, the only state in both Pax Silica and China's Waico. Singapore, a founding signatory, has been invited to Waico and says it will judge each initiative on its merits. Open-weight Chinese models account for 41% of downloads; Waico grew from 29 members in July to 38 by mid-August.

Institution: Natixis
Published: 09/29/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: August 2026

Key arguments

Tariffs and rare earths are negotiable, but AI capability is not, so the truce excludes the core strategic contest.
US pressure for exclusivity has moved to third countries; Kazakhstan, uniquely in both Pax Silica and Waico, became the first test.
Open-weight Chinese models cannot be recalled once downloaded and already account for 41% of open-model downloads, so export controls on models are unenforceable.
Europe's early Pax Silica alignment, despite Dutch lithography leverage, may accelerate China's push to replicate advanced lithography and weaken Europe's position versus both powers.

Key numbers

Open-model download share held by Chinese models: 41%
Waico members in July 2026: 29
Waico members as at mid-August 2026: 38
Countries that signed Pax Silica in December 2025: 7

Main risks

Forcing partners to choose sides may push more countries toward China's cheaper, more open models, counterproductive for Washington.
Excluding Kazakhstan would weaken the very critical-mineral supply chains Pax Silica exists to diversify.
Europe's early alignment could erode its leverage and accelerate Chinese replication of Dutch advanced lithography, with consequences for ASML.

Corresponding source evidence

Yet, by August 2026, Reuters reported that the US State Department was telling Pax Silica members and other countries that endorsed an AI Opportunity Statement that they could not also back “duplicative initiatives”. · August 2026

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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