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State Street's weekly outlook sees the Middle East energy crisis as the biggest risk to an otherwise constructive macro backdrop, with US midterms raising escalation odds. The Fed hiked 25bp in September and may hold before possibly reversing one hike by…
Oil's roughly $3/barrel decline drove lower sovereign yields across Europe and North America, with major equities up 0.75-1% while the dollar was little changed. Weekend hints of US-China progress precede Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting, though the note flags an…
Natixis reviews the end of Germany's super-election year with results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MWP) and Berlin that delivered fresh defeats to the federal governing parties. Die Linke won Berlin with 25.7% while the AfD secured 38.2% in MWP, leaving…
Natixis revises its year-end USDCNY forecast to 6.60 from 6.70 after the pair broke below 6.70, a four-year low, with CNY the best-performing Asian currency year-to-date. A large backlog of unconverted export receipts anchors the currency: the goods FX…
The Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% with all 12 voters backing the move on elevated inflation, and the September dot plot lifted the 2026 median to 4.1% from 3.8%. The BOJ raised its policy target to 1.25% with seven in favour and two…
The yen weakened sharply after the BoJ's September policy update, with USD/JPY hitting 158.05, before rebounding toward 157.00 after reports the BoJ conducted a rate check. MUFG reads this as a signal of limited tolerance for renewed yen weakness near 160.00.…
RBC expects headline durable goods orders to rise 0.2% m/m in August, with core orders up 0.7% on computer and electrical equipment tied to the AI buildout. Nonresidential investment, led by data center construction, has added nearly one percentage point to…
The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members preferring a hike. The statement flagged upside inflation risks greater than in July while noting little evidence so far of material second-round effects; November pricing slipped…
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, with a hawkish message; markets price at least three more hikes by mid-2027. The dollar rallied, front-end Treasury yields rose, Wall Street fell while Europe advanced. Brent dropped below…
State Street expects range-bound G10 FX into September, with the US dollar likely to retrace higher over one to two months despite ranking last in its model. Growth outside the US beat depressed expectations, but energy risks persist. The Japanese yen is…
The FOMC unanimously raised the target range 25bps to 3.75%-4% and guided at least one more hike this year, with a large minority seeing a further 2027 move. Two-year yields rose 14bps in a bear flattener, the dollar firmed and the S&P 500 fell about 0.75%.…
The FOMC raised the policy rate by 25bps to a 4.00% upper bound in a unanimous September decision, the first hike since 2023. Natixis views this as the path of least resistance that buys time to assess whether August's upside inflation surprise was temporary.…
Ottawa expanded its immediate expensing framework so firms can fully deduct first-year depreciation on about 65% of capital assets, up from 15%, and made the policy permanent at a projected $36 billion cost over five years. TD estimates a 0.3-0.8% real GDP…
Scotiabank expects the FOMC to hike 25bps on September 16, 2026, with 94 of 110 consensus forecasts agreeing, though the bank calls the case weak and expects dissenters. Markets are calm: bonds and stocks rally, oil is lower, the dollar little changed. The…
Markets brace for an almost certain 25bp Fed hike to 3.75–4.00% after hot core CPI. The 10-year Treasury briefly breached 5%, a 2007 high, before easing; the 2-year hit 4.686%. Equities fell as oil and yields rose. Brent settled near $109, up ~20% in…
Canadian home sales fell 0.7% (sa) in August, erasing most of the prior two months' gains, while new listings rose 3.3%. The sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 49.1% from 51.1%, months of inventory held at 4.8, and the MLS HPI was flat for a third month.…
Canada's housing market paused in August after five months of gains, with seasonally adjusted resales down 0.7% month-over-month, back to May levels. New listings rose 3.3%, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 49%, still balanced. RBC reads this as a…
Oil is higher but modest, with Brent at US$106 and WTI at US$102, pressing long-end bond yields on inflation fears. Markets price each of the Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE and BoJ for roughly 50bps of hikes by year-end. Equities slip broadly. Canadian existing home…
Citi's Supply Chain Financing report finds global trade durable through 2025 tariff shocks. Payment flows stayed strong; shipping normalized. From 2019-2024, North & East Asia exports shifted to emerging markets (Latin America +59%, Middle East & Africa +52%,…
BMO announced a strategic investment in Radical Ventures' new Radical Breakouts Fund, a late-stage venture strategy that has secured more than US$1 billion in institutional commitments. BMO separately plans to mobilize up to $70 billion in new capital over 10…