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Interest rates have risen across developed markets, but credit fundamentals remain resilient: strong earnings, healthy bank capital and liquidity have kept credit anchored. US high-yield revenue rose over 10% and operating profit over 14% year over year,…
Major central banks now reference broader financial conditions when setting policy. Using the Fed's FCI-G, PIMCO estimates conditions were about 50 bps too easy at end-2Q, implying a 70-bp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, a 9% equity decline, or a 4%…
Softer US data pressured yields: Conference Board confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9 and JOLTS openings dropped to 7.08m, while NY Fed's Williams saw no urgency to tighten further, cutting next-meeting hike odds to near 50%. The RBA raised its cash rate 25bp…
Northwest European gas storage sits at 62% capacity, about 10bcm below year-ago levels, setting up a tight Q4-26 winter. Under the base case TTF averages €76/MWh, peaking at €80/MWh; an adverse cold winter scenario averages €122/MWh. The energy-driven shock…
CBA will pass through the RBA's 0.25% p.a. cash rate increase to eligible variable-rate business lending, lifting its Variable Base Rate, Commercial Variable Base Rate, Residential Equity Rate, Commercial Residential Equity Rate, Overdraft Reference Rate and…
EVs, including plug-in hybrids, reached a record 25.8% of Australian new car sales in H1 2026, up from 12.1%, with 157,957 units sold. The national EV fleet grew to about 612,000 by end-June. Model choice rose to 196, and public charging locations jumped…
Commonwealth Bank will raise variable home loan rates by 0.25% per annum, matching the RBA's 0.25% cash rate increase. The changes take effect 9 October 2026. CBA cites persistent inflation and global uncertainty as drivers of broader economic pressure. The…
Australia's annual CPI inflation rose to 4.0% in August from 3.5% in July, driven by housing (+5.7%) and transport (+5.6%), with automotive fuel up 14.8% in the month. Trimmed mean inflation held at 3.6% for a third month. The data followed the RBA's 25bp…
US data softened: Conference Board consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest in over a decade, and August JOLTS openings dropped to 7.08m from 7.34m. NY Fed's Williams saw no urgency to tighten, cutting implied odds of another hike next meeting…
Westpac expects Australian Q4 2025 GDP growth to receive a modest 0.2ppt contribution from non-farm private inventories, which fell 0.1%qtr versus a flat forecast, while sales volumes rose 0.6%qtr across eleven of fourteen industries. Headline company gross…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
New York Fed President Williams' less hawkish remarks (one more hike 'late this year', no urgency) helped pull US 2-year yields about 5bp lower to 4.88% and trim October hike odds, though Barr and Musalem stayed hawkish. August job openings fell to 7.1mn (vs…
The dollar index reached 101.61, close to June's 101.80 year-to-date high, before New York Fed President Williams pushed back against an October hike, saying there is "no need for urgency." Markets pared October hike pricing to about 12bp from 18bp. Williams…
Natixis' survey of 45 respondents on Brazil's October 4 election shows a split market reaction. A Lula win is dominated by fiscal-responsibility concerns (76%), with 83% expecting USD/BRL above 5.30 by end-October. A Flavio Bolsonaro win is seen as…
Scotiabank's Derek Holt previews a data-heavy session that includes Canadian GDP for July and a Bank of Canada speech on repo markets and monetary policy implementation. He expects modest market moves, with US consumer confidence, JOLTS and Fed speakers also…
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% in a unanimous, hawkish decision, keeping the door open to further tightening if inflation does not return sustainably to target. Governor Bullock cited tight labour markets, excess demand and…
OCBC's credit weekly reports an accelerating sell-off driven by rates: UST yields rose 5-11bp at the front end and up to 18bp at the long end. IG spreads proved more resilient than HY, though IG's longer duration produced larger negative total returns and…
US equities fell as Brent settled 0.9% higher at USD105.3/bbl and the US 10Y yield rose about 7bps to 5.25%, with markets pricing roughly a 70% chance of another 25bp hike in October. US IG spreads widened 2bps to 82bps and HY 9bps to 303bps. Singapore August…
The RBA raised the cash rate 25bps to 4.6% in September 2026, a unanimous decision, with hawkish guidance that further increases may be needed. Westpac reads a November hike as the base case absent a lasting Middle East resolution or a sharp fall in energy…
US equities fell Monday as US-Iran ceasefire talks stalled, pushing Brent toward USD107/bbl. The S&P 500 lost 0.8%, erasing its September gain; the Nasdaq fell 0.9% and the Dow 0.7%. The 10Y UST yield rose about 7-9bp to 5.24-5.25%, a 19-year high, with the…