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Scotiabank's weekly preview argues Canadian core inflation remains at or above the BoC's 2% target, with traditional core running near 3% m/m SAAR for four straight months and another firm print expected, supporting the view that policy is too loose. BoC…
MUFG reports the USD is on course to weaken this week, ending four straight weekly gains. After jumping to a fresh year-to-date high on stronger September US CPI, the dollar quickly gave back those gains. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates this month;…
Barclays' Green Budget chapter projects CPI inflation to average 3.1% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 before returning to 2% in 2028. Real GDP growth slows from 1.4% in 2026 to 1.2% in 2027, with unemployment rising to 5.7% and real earnings falling in both years.…
ING expects EUR/USD to stay offered in a 1.10-1.15 range into year-end as French debt concerns echo the 2018 Italian episode rather than a Greek-style default. Modest fiscal consolidation should cap the OAT-Bund spread sell-off. A hawkish September Fed and…
ING argues EUR/USD stays pressured in a new 1.10-1.15 range over three to six months, as solid US growth and a hawkish Fed combine with French budget unrest; the French episode is likened to Italy's 2018 election-driven debt stress rather than Greece's 2012…
Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
France's OAT sell-off has blown out the OAT/Bund spread more than expected, leaving EUR vulnerable to further decline. MUFG flags forced selling as the driver, and options flows show one of the most EUR-negative readings in recent periods, implying a…
France's budget buys time but leaves structural deficits unresolved, keeping OAT-Bund spreads at risk of widening from 130bp toward 150bp. History suggests the euro's muted reaction could reverse, with a 3% risk premium buildup implying EUR/USD at 1.110 and…
MUFG's October 2026 FX outlook sees a US dollar-led world: DXY closed September up 2.0% after the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, with 10-year UST yields up 53bps. Six G10 central banks hiked, and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy prices elevated.…
The dollar remains supported by rising back-end yields, even after soft US consumer confidence (81.9) and JOLTS openings (7,079k) cut October FOMC hike pricing to 12bp. EUR/USD slid to 1.1310-20 before trading near 1.1350; further weakness toward 1.10 is…
Barclays Research's Q4 2026 Global Outlook argues that despite headwinds such as oil above $100, renewed geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates and rising bond yields, the foundations of global growth remain intact. Strong corporate earnings, an…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
Dovish ECB comments and Gulf tensions have tilted EUR/USD risks to the downside; the pair may test summer lows of 1.1320-30 if US data surprise. The RBA hiked to 4.60% but admitted considering a hold, pressuring AUD below 0.700. Oil at $107/bbl keeps bond…
The dollar starts next week dominant, near two-month highs, supported by a hawkish Fed and Treasury yields at multi-decade peaks; markets price an 83% chance of a further October hike. EUR/USD sits near 1.14 after a 300-pip monthly slide, GBP/USD near 1.32,…
USD strength has slowed and looks stretched near-term. Thursday's long-end Treasury yield rise failed to lift the dollar as it had before, while the short end stalled after Wednesday's PMI-driven jump, implying the market is wary of pricing more Fed…
Saxo Bank's quick take notes Brent trading near USD 105.4 after a USD 10 weekly range, as talk of a Qatar-mediated phased Strait of Hormuz deal with Iran offsets Houthi missile attacks on Saudi cities. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.50%, its highest…
A global bond sell-off has pushed back-end yields higher, triggering risk-off flows that help the dollar consolidate recent gains. Oil remains bid after a failed UN summit and scepticism over US-Iran talks, keeping upside risks for rates. ING sees Brent…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
The yen is the top performer after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said President Trump expressed concern over yen weakness, while Growth Minister Kiuchi noted the communication that rate hikes are on the radar. US Treasury yields fell modestly, tightly…
MUFG flags contagion risk after the 2-year UST yield jumped 72bp in 21 days, the largest such move since March 2023. Forced selling by fast money could trigger liquidation of profitable AI equity and FX carry positions. The dollar has modestly retraced as…