Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
Scotiabank's weekly preview argues Canadian core inflation remains at or above the BoC's 2% target, with traditional core running near 3% m/m SAAR for four straight months and another firm print expected, supporting the view that policy is too loose. BoC…
US September CPI accelerated to 3.7% y/y, with core at 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m, as price pressures broadened across goods, shelter and services. PPI jumped 1.3% m/m (6.3% y/y). Retail sales rose 0.8%, but ex-auto/gas gained just 0.2%. TD expects the Fed to skip…
MUFG notes UK August GDP rose 0.1% M/M, defying its -0.2% forecast, lifting the 3m/3m rate to 0.7% and annual growth above 2% for the first time since the post-pandemic rebound, driven by professional services and IT. MUFG tracks 2026 average growth at 1.5%,…
Belgium's coalition failed to agree a three-year €10bn savings package, chiefly blocked by one party's opposition to raising standard VAT from 21% to 22%. The general policy statement was postponed; focus shifts to a 2027 budget with €4bn savings, ideally…
US September inflation drifted higher, yet Natixis argues a Fed pause is more likely than not, giving room to complete scaling into 2yr longs. Treasuries rallied despite bad inflation data and a silent Warsh, suggesting the market is forming a floor. The bank…
Fed Chair Warsh refused to prejudge upcoming meetings or offer forward guidance, while repeating upbeat US outlook views. BoC Governor Macklem said the Bank has not yet raised rates but is asking whether energy-driven inflation will force a hike. US Commerce…
Next week brings rate decisions in Hungary, Turkey and Kazakhstan plus Polish industrial output, labour market and retail sales data. ING expects the National Bank of Hungary to hold, a 100bp Turkish cut to 36%, and a 25bp cut to 16.00% in Kazakhstan on 23…
Czech industrial producer prices rose 3.7% YoY and 1.2% MoM in September, beating expectations, while agricultural prices fell 7.2% YoY but rose 3.2% MoM. ING expects industrial PPI growth to peak above 6% in January and agricultural PPI above 12% by…
Eurostat's final September estimate put euro area headline HICP at 3.8% y/y and 0.6% m/m, above Natixis' 3.5% call but matching the flash. Energy surged 18.9% y/y and 4.0% m/m, contributing 1.7pp and overtaking services as the largest driver. Core held at…
FX markets are caught between hot inflation, which argues for tighter Fed policy, and an AI-related tech selloff that could force a softer stance. ING expects the dollar to consolidate near recent highs, sees DXY capped at 102.40/50, and flags defensive Swiss…
Fed Chair Warsh gave no policy guidance, which markets read as endorsing current pricing; the October hike probability dropped from 26% to 14% and the 2-year yield fell 3-4bps. The dollar was broadly unchanged. Warsh dwelt on AI, calling it a near-term…
MUFG expects the Philippine central bank to raise its policy rate 25bp to 5.25% on higher oil prices and Super El Niño risk, while the Bank of Korea is seen holding at 3.00% after back-to-back hikes. Bank Indonesia is widely expected to hold at 5.75%, though…
MUFG reports the USD is on course to weaken this week, ending four straight weekly gains. After jumping to a fresh year-to-date high on stronger September US CPI, the dollar quickly gave back those gains. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates this month;…
Long-end yields have calmed after recent multi-decade highs, but ING sees at least one more leg of weakness that could push the US 10-year yield into a 5.25-5.5% range, with jitters possibly extending into Q1 2027. Drivers include fiscal issuance pressure,…
ING argues EUR/USD will remain in a 1.10-1.15 range over the next three to six months, as a hawkish Fed and ECB repricing tied to French fiscal concerns keep real rate differentials at their widest since 2022. Neither driver looks set to reverse soon. A…
ING now expects the Bank of England to hike rates in November and February, driven by elevated natural gas prices and a brief CPI peak above 4% in early 2027. The hikes are framed as insurance, with cuts possible by late 2027 if second-round effects remain…
ING expects eurozone growth to moderate after a solid third quarter, with 2026 average growth of 1.0% and 1.2% in 2027 assuming energy prices normalise. HICP inflation rose to 3.8% in September, with underlying at 2.5%, and is likely to end 2026 above 4%…
Sovereign bonds are rallying while equities waver, with Treasury yields down 6–10bps in a bull flattener and the US 10-year 22bps below its peak ten days ago. The article questions whether this is a durable rotation into bonds or a brief hiccup. It previews…
France's fiscal troubles and widening spreads have raised the question of whether the ECB could use its Transmission Protection Instrument. The bar for TPI activation remains high: it would at minimum require France's budget to be fully adopted, and early…
Natixis analysts warn that French banks, despite strong credit fundamentals, remain structurally exposed to sovereign risk ahead of the 2027 presidential election. They cut France's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and see the public deficit at -5.4% of GDP…