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The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 5.25%, about 50bp higher than end-August, driven by higher real yields and Fed rate-hike repricing. A fair-value regression using ISM new orders and USD 2y5y swaption volatility shows yields deviating significantly…
Interest rates have risen across developed markets, but credit fundamentals remain resilient: strong earnings, healthy bank capital and liquidity have kept credit anchored. US high-yield revenue rose over 10% and operating profit over 14% year over year,…
State Street argues that although higher US sovereign yields have lifted income, the extra yield further out the curve may not compensate for duration risk. With sticky inflation, resilient growth and fiscal pressures, markets price a higher policy path; the…
Softer US data pressured yields: Conference Board confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9 and JOLTS openings dropped to 7.08m, while NY Fed's Williams saw no urgency to tighten further, cutting next-meeting hike odds to near 50%. The RBA raised its cash rate 25bp…
US job openings fell to a five-month low of 7.08 million and September consumer confidence slumped to 81.9, its weakest in over 12 years, yet NY Fed President Williams said there is "no urgency" for an imminent follow-up hike. Short-end Treasury yields and…
Brent steadied near USD 103/b after sliding 2.5% to USD 102.59/b, and WTI closed below USD 90/b, as Saudi Arabia rerouted flows east and lifted East-West line throughput to about half of its 7m b/d capacity following the temporary pipeline shutdown. A final…
US data softened: Conference Board consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest in over a decade, and August JOLTS openings dropped to 7.08m from 7.34m. NY Fed's Williams saw no urgency to tighten, cutting implied odds of another hike next meeting…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
UBS CIO argues that elevated policy rates and sticky inflation favor hedge funds, which posted positive cumulative returns in every Fed tightening cycle since 1994 while global bonds fell about 12% in the last cycle. Higher stock dispersion (implied vol ~2.5x…
Amid a fragmenting global order, growth is concentrated and inflationary pressures persist. Amundi expects major central banks to keep tightening, but by less than markets price. Fiscal policy is gaining importance, yet faces limited room. Summer events —…
Japanese officials escalated verbal warnings against yen weakness, with the chief currency official citing a "very clear" message from Japan and the US and the finance minister calling yen undervaluation a problem. USD/JPY fell to an intra-day low of 156.51…
Gold steadied near USD 4,125 after hitting a seven-week low as US 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5.25%, a level rarely seen since 2002. The 30-year hit 5.58% and the 2-year 4.95%. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,…
TLT closed at USD 78.62 on 28 September 2026, less than half its 2020 peak, with the 30-year yield at 5.55% and the 10-year at 5.24% after the Fed raised its range to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September. Selling a cash-secured put is presented as a way to name the…
Brent held above $107/b and WTI near $94/b as stalled US-Iran talks kept the Strait of Hormuz uncertain, though Saudi Arabia restored roughly half of its 7mb/d East-West pipeline, with flows of at least 3.5mb/d resuming at Yanbu; full restoration could take…
MUFG shifts its BoJ policy-rate scenario earlier: after the September 2026 hike to 1.25%, it now expects 1.50% in December 2026 (previously January 2027) and 1.75% in April 2027 (previously June 2027), with 1.75% as the terminal rate. It also revises the Fed…
Invesco argues the structural AI bull market remains intact despite higher oil prices and interest rates stalling the broadening trade. Meta's Muse personal AI agent, launched September 8, became the top free US app, lifting Meta shares over 11% in a session…
OCBC's 28 September 2026 outlook sees the RBA hiking 25bp to 4.60% on persistent core inflation and resilient demand. The Trump-Xi summit extended the US-China trade truce to 10 January 2027 with reciprocal tariff cuts on about USD30bn of goods, but rare…
OCBC's 28 Sep 2026 snapshot flags a data-heavy week capped by Friday's US nonfarm payrolls (consensus ~100k, unemployment 4.2%) and core PCE (0.3% m/m). The Trump-Xi meeting extended the trade truce to 10 January with reciprocal tariff cuts on ~USD30bn of…
State Street's Q3 2026 white paper argues gold is a portfolio diversifier with historical staying power. In 14 S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns greater than 15%, gold averaged +5.89% versus -23.70% for the index, with positive returns in eleven. The paper…
In the week to 22 September 2026, surging US Treasury yields and renewed Fed tightening expectations lifted the Dollar Index about 1% and prompted speculators to rebuild the aggregate dollar long from $5.9bn to $18.4bn. Yen longs were cut by 48k contracts…