Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
MUFG warns that a tougher external backdrop—higher US Treasury yields and Brent above $100/bbl—leaves Asia FX with a narrow path. The next US payrolls report is the key catalyst; consensus expects 100k jobs and unemployment at 4.1%. MUFG keeps a bias for…
Mexico's headline inflation rose to 3.42% y/y in the first half of September, above the 3.38% consensus and up from 3.26% in the prior fortnight, driven by the non-core component (2.17% y/y). Core inflation eased to 3.79% y/y. Separately, economic activity…
US senators and governors have proposed banning diesel exports to relieve farmers. Due to legal delegation, President Trump could enact such a ban without further Congressional action. The US exports 1.0–1.5 mb/d, much to Latin America. Mexico, Chile, and…
Natixis argues Germany's 2026 collective bargaining round should not trigger euro-area second-round effects. Nominal wage growth is forecast to slow to about 3.8% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 from 4.4% in 2025, with negotiated wages at 2.6% YoY in June 2026 and…
Natixis launched an anonymous two-minute survey on Brazil's October 4 general election and post-election expectations, including views on the policy outlook and the BRL. A second round would be held October 25 if no candidate wins over 50% of valid votes.…
Euro area September flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.0, its highest since April 2023 and above the 51.8 consensus, led by new orders at 52.8. Manufacturing held at 52.7 and services activity climbed to a 10-month high of 53.0. Yet employment was flat…
This Natixis report, written by Benito Berber and Selin Aker, examines Brazil's upcoming general election and its potential impact on asset prices, particularly the Brazilian Real (BRL). The report is a marketing communication and not independent investment…
Dutch retail sales are forecast to grow 3% in 2026, matching 2025, with e-commerce up 4.5%, food 3% and non-food 2.5%. Consumer goods prices rose only 1.5% in Jan-Jul 2026 versus 2.4% a year earlier, but food inflation is expected to rebound on drought and…
Germany's fiscal plan delivers short-term stimulus without lifting potential growth: the public deficit widens from 3.0% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026, peaks at 4.5% in 2027, then eases to 4.2% in 2028 as health and pension reforms tighten social security.…
Argentina and Türkiye both show ~30% y/y consumer inflation but have used sharply different disinflation strategies. Argentina's shock therapy under Milei has delivered resilient growth (GDP +4% since 2023) but created a severe household debt trap: 5.8…
Natixis argues that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a hesitant communicator who avoids forward guidance, has signaled his preferred gauges: inflation breadth, broad financial conditions and alternative underlying-inflation measures such as trimmed mean and median.…
This BNP Paribas Eco Week item, published 21 September 2026 and classified to eurozone, UK and US jurisdictions, is flagged as an article coming soon with no substantive economic content yet available. The only named contributor is Francois Faure of the…
The Fed raised its funds target range 25bp to 3.75-4.00% unanimously under Chair Warsh, with 16 of 19 members seeing another hike by year-end; BNP expects at least two more, December base case. The BOJ lifted its rate to 1.25%, a 1995 high, but two dissents…
Natixis reviews the end of Germany's super-election year with results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MWP) and Berlin that delivered fresh defeats to the federal governing parties. Die Linke won Berlin with 25.7% while the AfD secured 38.2% in MWP, leaving…
The Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% with all 12 voters backing the move on elevated inflation, and the September dot plot lifted the 2026 median to 4.1% from 3.8%. The BOJ raised its policy target to 1.25% with seven in favour and two…
Eurostat's final estimate puts euro area headline HICP at 3.25% yoy in August, up from 2.94% in July, with core easing to 2.40% from 2.48%. Energy jumped to 14.28% yoy, contributing 1.30 pp, mainly liquid fuels at 1.04 pp, while services slowed to 3.03% yoy…
The FOMC unanimously raised the target range 25bps to 3.75%-4% and guided at least one more hike this year, with a large minority seeing a further 2027 move. Two-year yields rose 14bps in a bear flattener, the dollar firmed and the S&P 500 fell about 0.75%.…
The FOMC raised the policy rate by 25bps to a 4.00% upper bound in a unanimous September decision, the first hike since 2023. Natixis views this as the path of least resistance that buys time to assess whether August's upside inflation surprise was temporary.…
UK headline inflation edged up to 3.1% in August on a 7% monthly rise in fuel costs. ING expects inflation to reach 3.4% next month and peak around 3.7% early next year if the household energy cap rises by circa 25% in January. However, food inflation fell to…
Canadian home sales fell 0.7% (sa) in August, erasing most of the prior two months' gains, while new listings rose 3.3%. The sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 49.1% from 51.1%, months of inventory held at 4.8, and the MLS HPI was flat for a third month.…