Latam Daily: Mexican Inflation Rises, Growth StrengthensGLOBAL ECONOMICS

中文标题

拉美日报：墨西哥通胀上升，经济增长走强 · 全球经济

Scotiabank Economics09/24/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Mexico's headline inflation rose to 3.42% y/y in the first half of September, above the 3.38% consensus and up from 3.26% in the prior fortnight, driven by the non-core component (2.17% y/y). Core inflation eased to 3.79% y/y. Separately, economic activity strengthened in July, with the IGAE expanding 3.4% y/y versus 2.8% in June, supported by services (+4.0%) and construction (+7.3%).

Institution: Scotiabank Economics
Published: 09/24/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Headline inflation exceeded expectations, driven by non-core items such as tomatoes, primary education, onions and LP gas.
Core inflation moderated to 3.79% y/y, below the previous 3.94%, indicating contained underlying pressures.
Economic activity accelerated in July, with services and construction as the main growth drivers.
The positive trend in activity persists, though the Jan-Jul accumulated IGAE growth remains moderate at 1.5%.

Key numbers

Headline inflation (1H Sep, y/y): 3.42%
Core inflation (1H Sep, y/y): 3.79%
Non-core inflation (1H Sep, y/y): 2.17%
IGAE growth (Jul, y/y): 3.4%
Construction growth (Jul, y/y): 7.3%

Main risks

Non-core inflation volatility, particularly from agricultural and energy prices, could keep headline inflation above target.
The sustainability of the growth acceleration remains uncertain, as it is concentrated in specific sectors like construction and services.
External or domestic shocks could disrupt the moderate growth trend observed in the first seven months of the year.

Corresponding source evidence

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