Argentina versus Türkiye: when disinflation strategies are compared, the picture is not rosy in Argentina

中文标题

阿根廷与土耳其：比较去通胀策略时，阿根廷的前景不容乐观

BNP Paribas09/21/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Argentina and Türkiye both show ~30% y/y consumer inflation but have used sharply different disinflation strategies. Argentina's shock therapy under Milei has delivered resilient growth (GDP +4% since 2023) but created a severe household debt trap: 5.8 million borrowers are over 90 days in arrears, average real personal loan rates reached 64% in August, and real wages fell 9%. Türkiye's flexible orthodoxy avoided this, though its own nonperforming household loans rose from ~3% to ~4.5%. BNP Paribas warns that while Argentina's systemic credit risk is low, the risk of prolonged stagnation or recession is very high.

Institution: BNP Paribas
Published: 09/21/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: 2025 · 2024

Key arguments

Argentina's shock therapy and Türkiye's flexible orthodoxy both cut monthly inflation to around 2%, but household outcomes diverged sharply.
Argentina's growth since 2024 has been unbalanced—driven by agriculture (+50%), fishing (+14%), mining (+24%) and financial intermediation (+23%), while construction (-13%) and manufacturing (-9%) contracted.
A debt trap has formed in Argentina: real personal loan rates of 64%, 5.8 million people over 90 days in arrears, and about half of overdue loans deemed irrecoverable.
The IMF considers the rise in NPLs low-risk because household debt is only ~5% of GDP, but BNP Paribas sees a high risk of prolonged stagnation or recession.

Key numbers

Argentina average real interest rate on personal loans (August): 64%
Arrears over 90 days in Argentina: 5.8 million people
Argentina real wage decline: -9%
Türkiye household nonperforming loan ratio: ~4.5%
Argentina household debt: ~5% of GDP

Main risks

Sharp slowdown in Argentine household consumption that could tip the economy into recession.
Damage to Argentine banks from household loan defaults, though systemic credit-crisis risk is judged low.
Loss of momentum in Argentina's agricultural and mining exports, on which growth would then rely exclusively.

Corresponding source evidence

Indeed, shock therapy is generally followed by a period of recession that can last several years, as was the case in Poland in the early 1990s.
However, Argentina’s macroeconomic picture contains a worrying grey area, as households’ ability to repay non-mortgage loans has very worryingly deteriorated since spring 2025, both in terms of the speed and scale of the decline – a situation not seen since 2008. · 2025
The Central Bank of Argentina estimates that 5.8 million people are more than 90 days in arrears on their loan repayments, and around half of these loans are viewed as irrecoverable.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

Verify at the original source ↗

Download institution PDF