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Natixis's Americas note flags Brazilian election victory for Bolsonaro alongside a surprise Peru hold: BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25% when a 25bp hike was expected, citing low supercore inflation of 1.8% y/y despite headline at 4.5%. The note also says…
Natixis expects September core CPI at 0.19% m/m and headline CPI at 0.6% m/m, both in line with consensus, reinforcing its view that underlying inflation keeps drifting lower. It sees little evidence of reacceleration: tariff and energy shocks are acyclical…
CORRA has frequently set 0-5bps above the BoC's target since mid-2023, with volatility rising and occasional deviations above 5bps. BoC measures — a 5bp deposit-rate cut, more term repos and infrastructure changes — have not fully resolved the pressure,…
French business creations rose 12% y/y over the first eight months of 2026, up from 5.3% in 2025, led by information and communication technologies. Bankruptcies increased 5.3% y/y from January to July, slower than 2025's 3.6% rise, after an 8% q1 surge.…
Peru's central bank unexpectedly held its policy rate at 4.25% for a 13th straight month, contrary to market consensus favoring a hike. Chile's September CPI rose 0.4% m/m, keeping annual inflation at 4.1%, while Mexico's headline inflation edged up to 3.45%…
Agentic commerce, where autonomous AI agents search, compare and buy on consumers' behalf, is forcing retailers to redefine physical stores. ING Research argues adoption is strongest in standardised, repeat categories like consumer electronics and personal…
This BNP Paribas Eco Week editorial previews a sectoral review of Europe's economic recovery two years on from the Draghi report. No findings, figures or conclusions are provided in the available text; the article is a header with author details and links to…
The Iran war hurt EU chemical producers less than feared, with production, capacity use and margins improving, but the reprieve is temporary. By June, EU output was 0.5% lower year-on-year and about 24% below early 2022. Once Gulf supply routes normalise,…
Natixis argues that the exceptional summer 2026 heatwaves acted as a persistent but temporary cost-push shock to euro area prices, not growth. Local projections on a 1995-2025 panel show energy prices rising 0.81pp on impact and food prices 0.46pp, with food…
MUFG expects the RBI to leave the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today, but views the pause as temporary. Higher oil prices, weather-related risks and resilient domestic demand keep upside inflation pressures elevated into 2027. MUFG forecasts two 25bp hikes in…
MUFG attributes the EUR sell-off to higher US yields and mounting euro-area fiscal and political risk, especially France, with French bond stress reviving fragmentation concerns and high foreign ownership of OATs amplifying outflows. EUR/USD has broken below…
Natixis expects Peru's central bank (BCRP) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50%, with two more 25bp hikes pencilled in for 2026, putting the real rate back inside the neutral range. Headline inflation has exceeded 4.0% since June, reaching 4.55% y/y in…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, with AI and capital goods investment driving the cycle. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK and Eurozone, and is expected to peak in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027, though energy inflation may spread.…
PIMCO's October 2026 Cyclical Outlook foresees resilient global growth and moderating inflation over the next six to 12 months, underpinned by an AI capex boom, consumers and China absorbing higher costs, and gradual central bank action. However, the benign…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, driven by AI-related capital spending. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK, and eurozone, expected to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, with risk of energy inflation broadening. Higher…
Mexico's gross fixed investment rose 6.6% year over year in July, a fourth straight gain, with imported machinery up 11.5% and construction up 7.1%. Private consumption decelerated to 1.1% as imported goods slowed to 0.1% and semi- and nondurable imports fell…
The EU's manufactured goods trade deficit with China reached €400bn over twelve months, driven by a 7% y/y rise in imports in H1 2026. However, exports excluding Germany have stabilised and even grown, with declines concentrated in automotive and electronics.…
EU construction output is forecast to grow just 0.5% in 2026 after 1.8% decline in 2024 and 2.3% growth in 2025, per ING Research. Infrastructure and Germany's modest rebound (first growth since 2020, after a >10% fall over 2020-25) support activity, while…
Natixis reports Brazil's first-round presidential vote: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took 47.03% against incumbent President Lula's 45.16%, with other mostly center-right candidates combining for 7.79%. Natixis believes Bolsonaro is likely to win the October 25…
Natixis expects France's 2027 draft budget (PLF/PLFSS) to miss its 5.0%-of-GDP deficit target by about 0.5pp, forecasting 5.5% — a slight deterioration from 5.4% in 2026. With a fragmented National Assembly and presidential elections in April-May 2027, the…