Europes construction sector faces period of weak growth

中文标题

欧洲建筑业面临一段低增长时期

ING THINK10/05/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

EU construction output is forecast to grow just 0.5% in 2026 after 1.8% decline in 2024 and 2.3% growth in 2025, per ING Research. Infrastructure and Germany's modest rebound (first growth since 2020, after a >10% fall over 2020-25) support activity, while higher financing costs, weak housing economics and geopolitical risk cap momentum. French output is seen contracting 2.5%; Spain +3%; the Netherlands stabilising; Poland flat; housing permits have broadly stabilised after a ~15% rise from mid-2024 to end-2025. Material costs rise only gradually, but low river levels and limited price-adjustment clauses add cost risk.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 10/05/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: 2026 · 2025 · 2027 · 2019 · 2020

Key arguments

EU construction growth returns in 2026 but stays weak at 0.5%, lagging GDP.
Infrastructure and Germany's rebound do most of the heavy lifting; buildings remain the weak spot.
Housing permits have stabilised after a ~15% rise, so a stronger residential recovery must wait.
Cost pass-through is harder, especially in France, Germany and Austria where existing-home prices lag.

Key numbers

EU construction output growth 2026 (forecast): 0.5%
EU construction output 2024 / 2025: -1.8% / +2.3%
Germany construction contraction 2020-2025: >10%
France construction output forecast 2026: -2.5%
Spain construction output forecast 2026: +3%

Main risks

Higher financing costs and weak housing economics keep projects unprofitable, prompting postponements.
Low river levels raise transport costs and delay material deliveries; 8% of firms reported material-shortage constraints in September, up from 5.7% in January.
Limited public price-adjustment schemes and weak private contracts raise dispute, delay and halt risk, notably in Spain.

Corresponding source evidence

Housing permits have stabilised, signalling that a stronger residential recovery will have to wait Europe's construction sector is showing signs of stabilising, but growth remains modest Low growth returns in 2026 We expect EU construction output to grow by a marginal 0.5% in 2026, following a 1.8% decline in 2024 and 2.3% growth in 2025. · 2026
The positive signals seen in early 2025 have since weakened. · 2025
We expect a modest recovery this year, with growth gradually gaining momentum in 2027, supported by housing and infrastructure. · 2027

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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