Bolsonaro sambas to victory in Brazil
中文标题
博索纳罗在巴西胜选
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Natixis's Americas note flags Brazilian election victory for Bolsonaro alongside a surprise Peru hold: BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25% when a 25bp hike was expected, citing low supercore inflation of 1.8% y/y despite headline at 4.5%. The note also says softer US inflation and dovish Fed talk have overtaken hawkish September minutes, and sees value in the front end of the US curve, expecting one more 25bp hike in December.
- Institution
- Natixis
- Published
- 10/09/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Fed Policy
- Time horizon
- next week · this year
Key arguments
- Peru's BCRP unexpectedly held its policy rate at 4.25%, surprising both Natixis and the market, which had forecast a 25bp hike.
- The BCRP cites low supercore inflation at 1.8% y/y, below 2% since April of last year, despite headline inflation of 4.5% y/y and a 2.0% target.
- Natixis still pencils in two hikes over coming months, totaling four hikes by end-2027, with the rate seen at 5.25% from April 2027.
- US rates: Natixis sees value in the front end, believing the market priced in too many Fed hikes, versus its house call of one more 25bp hike in December.
Key numbers
- Peru policy rate
- 4.25%
- Peru headline inflation
- 4.5% y/y
- Peru supercore inflation
- 1.8% y/y
- Peru September monthly inflation
- 0.12%
- Peru 12-month forward inflation expectations
- 3.1%
Main risks
- The document is classified as a marketing communication in the EEA, not independent investment research.
- The note says there is insufficient evidence for strong conclusions about the specific drivers of recent price action.
- Natixis's rate path is a forecast, and the BCRP surprised by holding rather than hiking.
Corresponding source evidence
+1 929 688 6923 selin.aker@natixis.com Discover more on our Website Bolsonaro sambas to victory in Brazil “The difficulty lies, not inthe new ideas, but inescaping from the old ones.” -John Maynard Keynes ► Inflation isthe main event next week and we see asubdued print.
· next weekSee our preview HERE .The services sector continued to expand in September for the 27 th consecutive month.
Next week, the focus will be on inflation data.
· next week
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Natixis on 10/09/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction