Brazil – Bolsonaro and the right score a major victory; markets likely to rally

中文标题

巴西——博索纳罗与右翼取得重大胜利；市场或将上涨

Natixis10/05/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Natixis reports Brazil's first-round presidential vote: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took 47.03% against incumbent President Lula's 45.16%, with other mostly center-right candidates combining for 7.79%. Natixis believes Bolsonaro is likely to win the October 25 second round and says markets are likely to rally. The right and center-right also made significant inroads in lower-house, Senate and gubernatorial races, per the note. The document is classified as a marketing communication in the EEA.

Institution: Natixis
Published: 10/05/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: 2027 · 2022

Key arguments

Flavio Bolsonaro's first-round lead over Lula and the center-right lean of eliminated candidates' votes make a Bolsonaro runoff win likely, in Natixis's view.
Natixis expects markets to rally on the result.
The right and center-right made significant inroads in lower-house, Senate and gubernatorial elections.
The report is classified as a marketing communication in the EEA and is not independent investment research.

Key numbers

Flavio Bolsonaro first-round vote share: 47.03%
Lula first-round vote share: 45.16%
Other candidates combined vote share: 7.79%
Second-round election date: October 25

Main risks

Natixis's runoff call is a belief, not a certainty; the second round has not yet occurred.
The document is a marketing communication, not independent investment research, and is not subject to dealing-ahead prohibitions.
Distribution is restricted to eligible counterparties, professional clients and qualified investors in various jurisdictions.

Corresponding source evidence

+1 929 688 6923 selin.aker@natixis.com Discover more on our Website Brazil – Bolsonaro and the right score a major victory; markets likely to rally Senator Flavio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of the vote, ahead of incumbent President Lula, who received 45.16% in the first round.
LATAM MACRO INSIGHTS 2 Brazil –Bolsonaro and the right score amajor victory; markets likely to rally Senator Flavio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of the vote, ahead of incumbent President Lula, who received 45.16% inthe first round.
Bolsonaro is likely to win the presidential election inthe second round on October 25.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

Verify at the original source ↗

Download institution PDF