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US headline PCE inflation held at 3.4% YoY and core at 3.0% in August, still above the Fed's 2% goal, with energy rebounding 2.3% MoM and goods inflation rising to 3.6% from 3.3%. Pay growth slowed to 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY, signaling labor slack. Australia's…
USD/JPY opened September at 159.77 and traded both sides of 157 as the BOJ hiked to 1.25% and the Fed raised 25bp. Washington now treats yen undervaluation as a leader-level issue, and a move above 160 would likely trigger stronger warnings and possible…
Annual revisions raised U.S. GDP growth and lowered past inflation, with real final sales to private domestic purchasers up 4.6% in Q2. September payrolls rose only 29k, prior months were revised lower, unemployment edged up to 4.2% on higher participation,…
Eurozone September inflation rose to 3.8% y/y, the highest since September 2023, driven by energy (+18.8% y/y). Core measures stayed contained, with HICP ex energy, food, alcohol and tobacco at 2.5%. Intesa Sanpaolo expects headline inflation to peak just…
EURUSD hit new one-year lows, driven mainly by broad USD strength, while the euro has only begun to reflect Eurozone sovereign stress. The France-Germany 10-year yield spread widened above 130bp from roughly 85bp in early September. French 10-year yields…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
Manufacturing and construction hiring has accelerated since late 2025 after cyclical payrolls fell 0.5% over 2024-2025. Regional Fed manufacturing employment surveys have trended higher since an October 2025 trough, suggesting job market breadth should…
SMBC forecasts September headline NFP at 67k, private NFP at 74k, and unemployment at 4.1%. The note highlights healthcare and social assistance, now a record 17.6% of private employment, as the dominant source of job growth. Hiring has tracked national…
The ECB could raise rates in December unless the Gulf crisis resolves quickly, as energy costs push euro area inflation higher while consumption and confidence stay fragile. The UK and Japan are slowing but rate rises are still likely by year-end. In the US,…
Energy-market rebalancing is slipping further away. The partial Hormuz blockade, Red Sea disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep oil and gas prices elevated, lifting inflation and delaying rate cuts. Under the baseline, assuming oil below $80 from…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Daily argues that cyclical-sector payrolls, which fell in 2024 and 2025, are now accelerating, pointing to a brighter labor market and growth outlook. The firm says this stabilization, alongside median wage growth realigning with…
SMBC revisits the gap between labor demand (job openings to unemployed workers) and wage growth, noting labor demand bottomed in late 2025 and rebounded in 2026 while wage growth decelerated linearly. Early indications suggest the gap may be closing, with the…
TD Economics expects US growth slightly above trend in 2026/27 on expansionary fiscal policy, loose financial conditions, AI investment and a resilient consumer, with unemployment drifting to 4% by Q1-2027. Core PCE is not seen reaching 2% until Q4-2027, so…
SMBC's US rates team argues the inflation-unemployment mix implies a rising rule-consistent policy rate, supporting further hikes after September's 25bp move. The CPI-minus-unemployment gap, a monthly Taylor Rule proxy watched for over 40 years, has preceded…
The Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% with all 12 voters backing the move on elevated inflation, and the September dot plot lifted the 2026 median to 4.1% from 3.8%. The BOJ raised its policy target to 1.25% with seven in favour and two…
State Street's Investment Solutions Group keeps an overweight equity allocation, citing resilient activity, a stable labor market and improving risk appetite, with its Market Regime Indicator at its lowest since early 2024. Still, expected equity returns…
Citi's Supply Chain Financing report finds global trade durable through 2025 tariff shocks. Payment flows stayed strong; shipping normalized. From 2019-2024, North & East Asia exports shifted to emerging markets (Latin America +59%, Middle East & Africa +52%,…
OCBC now expects a 25bp Fed hike at the September FOMC to a 3.75-4.00% target range, after US headline CPI held at 3.4% YoY with core easing to 2.4% and gasoline contributing 0.14pp. The ECB delivered its second 2026 hike, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50%.…
Westpac upgraded its June quarter New Zealand GDP forecast to +0.2% from a previous -0.1%, lifting annual growth to 2.4% as a weak year-earlier quarter drops out. Seasonal distortions may subtract around 0.3ppts, implying a healthier 0.5% underlying pace. The…