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The US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread has narrowed to just under 30 basis points, a bear flattening that could invert. UBS CIO argues the slope shows tighter policy, not an imminent recession: PMI strength, solid jobs, and 25% S&P 500 earnings growth…
Scotiabank's Latam Weekly previews Chile GDP, Peru CPI and Colombia's BanRep decision, plus Mexican trade and Brazilian industrial production, ahead of Friday's US nonfarm payrolls. BanRep is likely to hold at 12.00%. Despite weak Chilean activity, the BCCh's…
The 2026 rate path shifted from anticipated cuts to a possible modest tightening before year-end, producing a bear steepening of the yield curve and higher real yields and term premia. Credit markets stayed well behaved, with brief volatility and spread…
TD Economics reports the global bond selloff intensified, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of 5.22% on strong PMIs, hawkish Fed unity and weak auction demand. WTI fell 6% to about $94 on Saudi pipeline resumption, though refined products…
The ECB could raise rates in December unless the Gulf crisis resolves quickly, as energy costs push euro area inflation higher while consumption and confidence stay fragile. The UK and Japan are slowing but rate rises are still likely by year-end. In the US,…
SMBC argues the recent rate selloff reflects a repricing of the policy path rather than market stress, as futures basis and on-the-run/off-the-run spreads stayed orderly. With roughly 95bp of additional tightening priced over 12 months, SMBC believes the…
This is Intesa Sanpaolo's macroeconomic calendar for 28 September–2 October 2026, listing scheduled data releases and central bank events for the US, eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China and Switzerland. Consensus points to a US September…
Natixis expects one more Fed hike in December and an elevated U.S. Treasury curve, keeping the Mexican peso under pressure. Banxico held its policy rate at 6.50% unanimously in September, stating it will not react mechanically to U.S. monetary policy but will…
The CNB's September minutes read more hawkish than the press conference, with the board judging inflation risks tilted to the upside. Core inflation, services prices, food and an oil-driven energy shock are cited, alongside above-target wage growth. ING…
Global markets stayed resilient after a rates sell-off, with the 10-year UST yield rising about 8bp to 5.20% and futures pricing a 71% chance of an October Fed hike. Supporting data: jobless claims at 197k and new-home sales up 6.4%. Norway hiked, Sweden…
Oil fell as US and Iranian negotiators explored a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent near USD 105/b and WTI below USD 93/b. Iran reportedly proposed a seven-day reopening if conditions are met, though prior diplomacy failed. Supply risks…
Commodities showed resilience despite the US 10-year yield hitting a 19-year high above 5.2% and a stronger dollar. Precious metals fell about 2% with gold down 1.8% to test $4,235 support. Industrial metals gained 0.8%, led by copper up 1.5% on tight China…
Energy-market rebalancing is slipping further away. The partial Hormuz blockade, Red Sea disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep oil and gas prices elevated, lifting inflation and delaying rate cuts. Under the baseline, assuming oil below $80 from…
The dollar starts next week dominant, near two-month highs, supported by a hawkish Fed and Treasury yields at multi-decade peaks; markets price an 83% chance of a further October hike. EUR/USD sits near 1.14 after a 300-pip monthly slide, GBP/USD near 1.32,…
The September US jobs report, due Friday, is expected to show roughly 100k jobs added with unemployment holding at 4.1%, leaving an October Fed rate hike in play, with a downward revision to August also anticipated. Eurozone inflation data will be watched for…
ING expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike the cash rate 25bp to 4.6% on 29 September 2026, citing sticky trimmed mean inflation at 3.6% y/y, resilient labour demand (three-month average job creation of 34k, participation at a record 67.1%) and higher…
Risk sentiment improved briefly on reports of a phased US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but hurdles remain. Tightening bias broadened: Norway hiked, Sweden signalled a hike, BoE's Lombardelli and Breeden moved closer to a hike, and Fed's Paulson…
Eurozone M3 money supply grew 3.5% year-on-year in August 2026, up from 3.4% in July, while private-sector credit rose 3.6%. Household loan growth held at 3.1%, corporate loans slowed to 4.2% from 4.4%. The ECB's balance sheet reduction still weighs on M3.…
USD strength has slowed and looks stretched near-term. Thursday's long-end Treasury yield rise failed to lift the dollar as it had before, while the short end stalled after Wednesday's PMI-driven jump, implying the market is wary of pricing more Fed…
A global bond sell-off has pushed back-end yields higher, triggering risk-off flows that help the dollar consolidate recent gains. Oil remains bid after a failed UN summit and scepticism over US-Iran talks, keeping upside risks for rates. ING sees Brent…