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US equities fell Monday as US-Iran ceasefire talks stalled, pushing Brent toward USD107/bbl. The S&P 500 lost 0.8%, erasing its September gain; the Nasdaq fell 0.9% and the Dow 0.7%. The 10Y UST yield rose about 7-9bp to 5.24-5.25%, a 19-year high, with the…
Dovish ECB comments and Gulf tensions have tilted EUR/USD risks to the downside; the pair may test summer lows of 1.1320-30 if US data surprise. The RBA hiked to 4.60% but admitted considering a hold, pressuring AUD below 0.700. Oil at $107/bbl keeps bond…
Japanese officials escalated verbal warnings against yen weakness, with the chief currency official citing a "very clear" message from Japan and the US and the finance minister calling yen undervaluation a problem. USD/JPY fell to an intra-day low of 156.51…
Gold steadied near USD 4,125 after hitting a seven-week low as US 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5.25%, a level rarely seen since 2002. The 30-year hit 5.58% and the 2-year 4.95%. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,…
TLT closed at USD 78.62 on 28 September 2026, less than half its 2020 peak, with the 30-year yield at 5.55% and the 10-year at 5.24% after the Fed raised its range to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September. Selling a cash-secured put is presented as a way to name the…
Eurozone inflation and confidence data are secondary to global crosswinds, with second-round effects unlikely to appear this week. The ECB sees higher long-term rates as a growth headwind and maintains a measured response. Consumer confidence is the weak…
The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen above 5% after a global bond sell-off, and the Federal Reserve has lifted its policy rate to 3.75–4.00% while signalling more tightening may come. Higher oil prices, resilient growth, inflation and debt worries are…
Citi argues that incomplete or inaccurate Standing Settlement Instructions are a major, under-invested cause of settlement fails ahead of Europe's T+1 move on 11 October 2027. Poor SSIs drove 21% of T2S fails in 2024, with T2S participants paying about EUR…
Based on BIS locational banking data, Asia's claims on the GCC grew faster than the rest of the world, with Hong Kong's claims rising $72bn from 2019 to Q1 2026 and the GCC's share up to 4.4% from 2.0%; Korea's share fell to 4.8% from 6.6%. Bloomberg…
Higher oil prices and US yields above 5.2% are deepening Asian FX divergence. Brent stayed above $100/bbl while the dollar index rose to about 101.1, a negative terms-of-trade shock for Asia's oil importers. Asia currencies remain above Q1 2025 lows, helped…
Brent held above $107/b and WTI near $94/b as stalled US-Iran talks kept the Strait of Hormuz uncertain, though Saudi Arabia restored roughly half of its 7mb/d East-West pipeline, with flows of at least 3.5mb/d resuming at Yanbu; full restoration could take…
MUFG shifts its BoJ policy-rate scenario earlier: after the September 2026 hike to 1.25%, it now expects 1.50% in December 2026 (previously January 2027) and 1.75% in April 2027 (previously June 2027), with 1.75% as the terminal rate. It also revises the Fed…
Geopolitical fragmentation is reorganizing trade, investment and supply chains around security and resilience rather than reversing globalization. Duplicated capacity, larger inventories and higher-cost supply chains may improve resilience but reduce…
This State Street research article explains how sustainability considerations are integrated into a systematic active fixed income framework, comparing a SAFI Climate strategy with a standard SAFI strategy across US and EUR investment-grade corporate bond…
RBC's national affordability measure edged down only 0.4 percentage points to 52.8% in Q2 2026, the smallest improvement in almost a year. Rising household income accounted for the entire gain as home prices stabilized and rates held steady. Vancouver (83.9%)…
SMBC forecasts September headline NFP at 67k, private NFP at 74k, and unemployment at 4.1%. The note highlights healthcare and social assistance, now a record 17.6% of private employment, as the dominant source of job growth. Hiring has tracked national…
The Fed raised rates in September 2026 for the first time in three years, even though much of current inflation stems from supply, not demand. San Francisco Fed data show acyclical PCE core inflation at 3.5% in July, three times its 2011-2019 average, and…
Invesco argues the structural AI bull market remains intact despite higher oil prices and interest rates stalling the broadening trade. Meta's Muse personal AI agent, launched September 8, became the top free US app, lifting Meta shares over 11% in a session…
OCBC's 28 September 2026 outlook sees the RBA hiking 25bp to 4.60% on persistent core inflation and resilient demand. The Trump-Xi summit extended the US-China trade truce to 10 January 2027 with reciprocal tariff cuts on about USD30bn of goods, but rare…
State Street reports a six-month upturn in global manufacturing, led by developed markets and AI investment. The US preliminary September manufacturing PMI hit 57.0, its highest since May 2022, while the UK composite PMI fell to a three-month low of 51.7 and…