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Westpac expects Australian Q4 2025 GDP growth to receive a modest 0.2ppt contribution from non-farm private inventories, which fell 0.1%qtr versus a flat forecast, while sales volumes rose 0.6%qtr across eleven of fourteen industries. Headline company gross…
Barclays Research's Q4 2026 Global Outlook argues that despite headwinds such as oil above $100, renewed geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates and rising bond yields, the foundations of global growth remain intact. Strong corporate earnings, an…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
New York Fed President Williams' less hawkish remarks (one more hike 'late this year', no urgency) helped pull US 2-year yields about 5bp lower to 4.88% and trim October hike odds, though Barr and Musalem stayed hawkish. August job openings fell to 7.1mn (vs…
The dollar index reached 101.61, close to June's 101.80 year-to-date high, before New York Fed President Williams pushed back against an October hike, saying there is "no need for urgency." Markets pared October hike pricing to about 12bp from 18bp. Williams…
BNP Paribas data as of 25 September 2026 show Brent at $104.26, gold at $4,280/oz, and US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.16%. EUR/USD at 1.14, USD/JPY at 157.17. Yields rose across most maturities, with 1-week changes positive for 2Y and 5Y but negative for 10Y.…
Advanced economies showed broad September strength. Eurozone composite PMI reached 53.1, its highest since April 2023, with services output prices at 56.1 spreading the energy shock. Germany's composite rose to 53.8 and Ifo hit 89.9; France returned to…
The UK government's pension triple-lock reform and absence of inflationary policies reduce the tail risk of a Labour-driven inflation spiral, a positive for gilts. However, US rates and energy prices remain the dominant drivers, keeping sterling rates…
This Scotiabank Economics calendar lists October 2026 release dates for the US, Canada, eurozone, UK and Japan. Highlights include FOMC and Bank of Canada meetings alongside the ECB, plus US CPI, eurozone CPI and GDP, and Canada GDP, CPI and jobs. The…
UBS CIO argues that elevated policy rates and sticky inflation favor hedge funds, which posted positive cumulative returns in every Fed tightening cycle since 1994 while global bonds fell about 12% in the last cycle. Higher stock dispersion (implied vol ~2.5x…
Intesa Sanpaolo expects Italy's GDP to grow 0.9% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, with the unemployment rate revised to 5.5% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027. Services and exports drive activity, but productivity stagnates and structural gaps persist. Exports surprised on…
US consumer confidence fell to 81.9 in September, a 12-year low and below every consensus forecast. Yet spending persists because high-income households, holding 70% of household wealth and accounting for 40-60% of spending, keep consuming. The low-hire,…
Manufacturing and construction hiring has accelerated since late 2025 after cyclical payrolls fell 0.5% over 2024-2025. Regional Fed manufacturing employment surveys have trended higher since an October 2025 trough, suggesting job market breadth should…
The September Fed hike temporarily closes the window for broad USD weakness, as markets shift from pricing cuts to hikes. Amundi still expects the Fed to deliver less tightening than priced, so any renewed dollar strength should be limited and weakness should…
Amid a fragmenting global order, growth is concentrated and inflationary pressures persist. Amundi expects major central banks to keep tightening, but by less than markets price. Fiscal policy is gaining importance, yet faces limited room. Summer events —…
Natixis' survey of 45 respondents on Brazil's October 4 election shows a split market reaction. A Lula win is dominated by fiscal-responsibility concerns (76%), with 83% expecting USD/BRL above 5.30 by end-October. A Flavio Bolsonaro win is seen as…
Scotiabank's Derek Holt previews a data-heavy session that includes Canadian GDP for July and a Bank of Canada speech on repo markets and monetary policy implementation. He expects modest market moves, with US consumer confidence, JOLTS and Fed speakers also…
Eurozone ESI fell to 97.9 in September from 98.4, the first decline in four months, driven by consumer confidence dropping to -16.5 amid rising fuel prices. Manufacturing and services sentiment improved. Selling-price expectations rose only in manufacturing…
Natixis' China Corporate Monitor 2026 argues that wide-ranging monetary, fiscal, property and consumption support has lowered financing pressure and stabilized parts of the economy, but has failed to ignite a corporate recovery. Weaker domestic demand has…
The RBA raised the cash rate 25bps to 4.6% in September 2026, a unanimous decision, with hawkish guidance that further increases may be needed. Westpac reads a November hike as the base case absent a lasting Middle East resolution or a sharp fall in energy…