Sentiment slides again yet us consumers keep spending

中文标题

情绪再度下滑，但美国消费者仍在支出

ING THINK09/29/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

US consumer confidence fell to 81.9 in September, a 12-year low and below every consensus forecast. Yet spending persists because high-income households, holding 70% of household wealth and accounting for 40-60% of spending, keep consuming. The low-hire, low-fire labour market, with quits at 1.9% and openings at 7,079k, caps wage growth near 2.75-3.00%, keeping real incomes squeezed and confidence weak.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/29/2026
Research topic: Fed Policy
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Fed Policy · FED

Key arguments

Consumer confidence at 81.9 is historically consistent with falling spending, but this link has weakened as high-income households drive consumption.
High-income households (top 20%) hold 70% of wealth and account for 40-60% of spending, insulating aggregate consumption from median-household gloom.
Job openings fell to 7,079k and the quits rate held at 1.9%, consistent with wage growth of only 2.75-3.00% and no second-round inflation from energy costs.
A low-hire, low-fire economy keeps workers from quitting, so firms face no pressure to raise wages, leaving real incomes squeezed and sentiment weak.

Key numbers

Conference Board Consumer Confidence (September): 81.9
Consumer Confidence (August): 88.6
Consensus Forecast: 89.0
JOLTS Job Openings: 7,079k
Quits Rate: 1.9%

Main risks

Consumer confidence could fall further, potentially triggering outright spending declines if high-income wealth effects reverse.
A sustained rise in motor fuel costs could worsen cost-of-living anxiety and squeeze real incomes.
If the labour market deteriorates, the low-hire, low-fire dynamic could shift, but a rise in unemployment would hurt spending.

Corresponding source evidence

The headline reading was weaker than every forecast in the survey and leaves sentiment at a 12-year low.
In terms of wealth concentration and how this influences sentiment and spending, we know from Federal Reserve figures that the top 20% of households by income hold 70% of household wealth.
Meanwhile, the bottom 60% of households by income, which obviously includes the median person, only hold 15% of the wealth of America.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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