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This is Intesa Sanpaolo's macroeconomic calendar for 28 September–2 October 2026, listing scheduled data releases and central bank events for the US, eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China and Switzerland. Consensus points to a US September…
Intesa Sanpaolo forecasts Spanish government gross issuance of EUR285bn in 2026, down from an estimated EUR276bn in 2025, with net issuance of EUR54bn versus EUR61bn. Redemptions total EUR230bn. Letras gross issuance rises to EUR116bn while Bonos &…
Energy-market rebalancing is slipping further away. The partial Hormuz blockade, Red Sea disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep oil and gas prices elevated, lifting inflation and delaying rate cuts. Under the baseline, assuming oil below $80 from…
The dollar starts next week dominant, near two-month highs, supported by a hawkish Fed and Treasury yields at multi-decade peaks; markets price an 83% chance of a further October hike. EUR/USD sits near 1.14 after a 300-pip monthly slide, GBP/USD near 1.32,…
USD strength has slowed and looks stretched near-term. Thursday's long-end Treasury yield rise failed to lift the dollar as it had before, while the short end stalled after Wednesday's PMI-driven jump, implying the market is wary of pricing more Fed…
Saxo Bank's quick take notes Brent trading near USD 105.4 after a USD 10 weekly range, as talk of a Qatar-mediated phased Strait of Hormuz deal with Iran offsets Houthi missile attacks on Saudi cities. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.50%, its highest…
A global bond sell-off has pushed back-end yields higher, triggering risk-off flows that help the dollar consolidate recent gains. Oil remains bid after a failed UN summit and scepticism over US-Iran talks, keeping upside risks for rates. ING sees Brent…
Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp concedes UniCredit effectively won the two-year takeover battle, with UniCredit set to hold 49% once approvals come through. She now seeks constructive dialogue and rejects talk of failure, citing the shares' rise from €13 in…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
The yen is the top performer after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said President Trump expressed concern over yen weakness, while Growth Minister Kiuchi noted the communication that rate hikes are on the radar. US Treasury yields fell modestly, tightly…
MUFG flags contagion risk after the 2-year UST yield jumped 72bp in 21 days, the largest such move since March 2023. Forced selling by fast money could trigger liquidation of profitable AI equity and FX carry positions. The dollar has modestly retraced as…
The global fixed income sell-off continues without clear resolution, with the US dollar strengthening as US yields rose across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed roughly 60bps this month, approaching the scale of the March move after the…
The US Treasury curve bear-flattened as 2s10s narrowed to 19bp from 40bp; the 2-year yield rose 38bp to 4.8% while the 30-year was unchanged at 5.29%, with both real rates and inflation expectations contributing. Intesa Sanpaolo expects gradual declines over…
Commodity markets remain distorted by persistent conflicts, but fundamentals are gaining weight. Physical crude rebalancing is capping rallies, while non-OPEC supply growth and weak demand could build a surplus and pull prices lower. Europe's gas and power…
Major central banks remain hawkish, with the Fed, ECB and BOJ all tightening policy, yet financial conditions stay unusually loose. AI-related capital expenditure is the dominant growth engine, sustaining activity and market leadership. US underlying…
Global financial conditions are tightening as inflation rises and most central banks raise rates, with the PBOC as the exception. Hong Kong retains a major liquidity pool, with IPO fundraising rebounding since 2025 and HIBOR below SOFR. China's RMB usage in…
US equities rallied as AI optimism, easing energy prices and positive US-China trade headlines lifted sentiment. S&P 500 rose 1.5% and Nasdaq advanced 2.3% to a record close; Meta jumped 11% on its Muse AI agent, while AMD passed USD1t market cap. Brent fell…
Oil's roughly $3/barrel decline drove lower sovereign yields across Europe and North America, with major equities up 0.75-1% while the dollar was little changed. Weekend hints of US-China progress precede Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting, though the note flags an…
OCBC's 21 September 2026 snapshot notes the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 5% as markets price two more hikes by year-end despite the Fed's 25bp move. US IG and HY spreads tightened 1bp and 2bp to 75bp and 267bp; Asia HY widened 10bp to 323bp. Traders…
The Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% with all 12 voters backing the move on elevated inflation, and the September dot plot lifted the 2026 median to 4.1% from 3.8%. The BOJ raised its policy target to 1.25% with seven in favour and two…