Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
Peru's central bank unexpectedly held its policy rate at 4.25% for a 13th straight month, contrary to market consensus favoring a hike. Chile's September CPI rose 0.4% m/m, keeping annual inflation at 4.1%, while Mexico's headline inflation edged up to 3.45%…
The November 3 midterms could end unified government. The baseline, a Democratic House and a neck-and-neck Senate, implies legislative gridlock while the White House keeps leeway on tariffs, immigration, deregulation and foreign policy. Fiscal sticking…
Mexico's September auto data showed mixed signals: production fell 15.1% year over year to 301,803 vehicles — a sharper contraction than the prior 1.4% decline — while exports dropped 11.9% to 277,369. Domestic light-vehicle sales rose 7.9% year over year to…
Bonds are under pressure from higher oil prices on escalating Strait of Hormuz attacks, renewed EGB fractures, and a hawkish global central bank tone (RBI hike, possible BCRP move). Treasury and Canadian yields rose in bear steepeners, with long-end yields up…
Natixis argues that the exceptional summer 2026 heatwaves acted as a persistent but temporary cost-push shock to euro area prices, not growth. Local projections on a 1995-2025 panel show energy prices rising 0.81pp on impact and food prices 0.46pp, with food…
Natixis expects Peru's central bank (BCRP) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50%, with two more 25bp hikes pencilled in for 2026, putting the real rate back inside the neutral range. Headline inflation has exceeded 4.0% since June, reaching 4.55% y/y in…
Canadian exports rose 2.5% in August, a sixth straight monthly surplus, aided by tariff front-running. Imports fell 2.0%, led by autos and gold. The US deficit widened to US$105bn on a 4.3% import surge. Canada's estimated effective tariff rate rose to 4.6%,…
French bonds outperformed, with yields down about 10bp across the curve and spreads over bunds tighter, after National Rally leader Marine Le Pen proposed cutting the deficit from 5-6% to just over 2% by 2032 and called for ECB action. Quebec's election…
Mexico's gross fixed investment rose 6.6% year over year in July, a fourth straight gain, with imported machinery up 11.5% and construction up 7.1%. Private consumption decelerated to 1.1% as imported goods slowed to 0.1% and semi- and nondurable imports fell…
Natixis reports Brazil's first-round presidential vote: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took 47.03% against incumbent President Lula's 45.16%, with other mostly center-right candidates combining for 7.79%. Natixis believes Bolsonaro is likely to win the October 25…
Markets enter the week cautiously after Friday's weak 29k US payrolls print, with politics dominating. Quebec votes tonight: the separatist PQ may win around 30% and a minority or slim majority, yet majorities oppose both the PQ and separation. Quebec already…
State Street and Barclays argue that systematic credit investing was historically constrained by trading frictions, but recent market developments—growth in electronic trading, credit ETFs and portfolio trading—have reduced these barriers. The paper describes…
Natixis expects France's 2027 draft budget (PLF/PLFSS) to miss its 5.0%-of-GDP deficit target by about 0.5pp, forecasting 5.5% — a slight deterioration from 5.4% in 2026. With a fragmented National Assembly and presidential elections in April-May 2027, the…
Brazil's general election leads a heavy Latam week. Polls put Lula about 4-5ppts ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro, with a second round on October 25. September CPI is seen rising 0.1-0.3ppts across Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Brazil. Scotiabank expects the BCRP to…
Peruvian headline inflation rose 0.12% m/m in September, lifting annual inflation to 4.6% y/y from 4.4% in August and keeping it above the BCRP's 1%-3% target for a sixth straight month. Core inflation held at 4.5% y/y, but core excluding transportation stood…
US nonfarm payrolls rose only 29k in September versus 90k expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% and participation rose to 61.8%. Natixis reads a stable but not inflationary labor market, with wage growth of just 13bps m/m, reducing urgency…
Natixis reports September US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k, below the 90k expectation and August's revised 133k, pulling the three-month average to 51k. Unemployment edged up to 4.2% as participation improved, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% m/m…
Natixis LATAM Macro Insights, based on late-September meetings with two Banxico board members, reports that at its September 24 meeting Banxico kept its policy rate at 6.50% and signaled it would not respond mechanically to Federal Reserve actions amid rising…
MUFG's Q3 2026 review shows earnings absorbing a global duration selloff: Brent rose 42% to about $104, gold gained 3.7% to $4,517, and the 10-year UST yield climbed 68bp to 5.28%, with 30-year yields at multi-decade highs. The dollar firmed modestly and…
Chilean August GDP fell 1.0% y/y, driven by a 17.4% mining decline, making a 2026 contraction between -0.5% and 0.0% highly likely. Non-mining activity remains resilient, projected to expand 0.5%-1.0% despite supply shocks. Unemployment rose to 9.6% (9.4%…