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Eurostat's final estimate puts euro area headline HICP at 3.25% yoy in August, up from 2.94% in July, with core easing to 2.40% from 2.48%. Energy jumped to 14.28% yoy, contributing 1.30 pp, mainly liquid fuels at 1.04 pp, while services slowed to 3.03% yoy…
ABN AMRO has downgraded its EUR/USD forecasts to 1.15 after the Fed hiked its policy rate by 25bp and signalled a more hawkish path than expected. The bank now sees the pair trading broadly sideways until Q2 2027, as higher-for-longer energy prices and…
The Fed hiked 25bp and the dot plot showed strong support for another hike this year, sending DXY up 0.6% to a two-month high and widening the two-year swap differential by 15bp. ING sees near-term USD upside, EUR/USD downside toward 1.132-1.135, BoE on hold…
Westpac argues Asian growth forecasts have been revised higher, yet regional currencies have largely failed to reflect these fundamentals. Capital allocation decisions increasingly offset trade strength. India's FCNR(B) scheme attracted US$127.2bn in…
The FOMC delivered a unanimous 25bp hike, lifting the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Policymakers cited resilient household spending, business investment and job growth, revising the median dot to 4.1% for end-2026 and end-2027, with PCE at 3.7% and core…
State Street expects range-bound G10 FX into September, with the US dollar likely to retrace higher over one to two months despite ranking last in its model. Growth outside the US beat depressed expectations, but energy risks persist. The Japanese yen is…
The FOMC unanimously raised the fed funds rate 25bp to a 3.875% midpoint, with guidance pointing to at least one more move by year-end and 8 of 18 forecasters flagging additional hike risk by end-2027. US 2-year yields rose 7bp and the 10-year topped 5%; the…
The FOMC unanimously raised the target range 25bps to 3.75%-4% and guided at least one more hike this year, with a large minority seeing a further 2027 move. Two-year yields rose 14bps in a bear flattener, the dollar firmed and the S&P 500 fell about 0.75%.…
The Fed delivered a widely anticipated 25bp hike, leaving the long end broadly steady near 4.95%. ING maintains a bearish stance on long bonds, expecting the UST 10yr yield to break back above 5% and target 5.25%, supported by sticky inflation, fiscal…
The FOMC raised the policy rate by 25bps to a 4.00% upper bound in a unanimous September decision, the first hike since 2023. Natixis views this as the path of least resistance that buys time to assess whether August's upside inflation surprise was temporary.…
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate 25bp to 3.75-4%, a unanimous decision, and its projections point to one more hike this year before holding at 4.125% through 2027. ING's base case is 'one and done' given labour slack, 3% wage growth and expected oil…
Scotiabank expects the FOMC to hike 25bps on September 16, 2026, with 94 of 110 consensus forecasts agreeing, though the bank calls the case weak and expects dissenters. Markets are calm: bonds and stocks rally, oil is lower, the dollar little changed. The…
Eurozone industrial production fell 0.1% month-on-month in July, matching June's 0.1% decline and leaving output broadly flat versus a year earlier. Capital goods and energy held up, but non-durable consumer goods were sharply weaker. Manufacturing is…
UK August CPI rose to 3.1%, 25bp above the BoE's July projection, driven by energy while core (2.6%) and services (3.4%) stayed stable. With Brent near $110 and gas at multi-year highs, MUFG expects a hawkish hold at the September BoE meeting and a signal…
Markets fully price a consensus 25bp Fed hike to 4.0%, with 52bp by year-end and 89bp by June. A surprise hold would hit the dollar hard via front-end repricing and a Treasury selloff, but the Fed is mindful of that risk, keeping a hold unlikely and arguing…
Markets had a quiet but nervous overnight session. Brent settled 2.7% higher near US$108.5/bbl as the Saudi East-West pipeline closure increasingly looks likely to last weeks, not days, and Saudi crude cargo cancellations were reported at a key port. Higher…
A 25bp Fed hike is almost fully discounted, taking the funds target range to 3.75-4%. ING calls 25bp but flags a 50bp 'insurance hike' as the move that could give Chair Warsh control and tame the back end, at the risk of market instability. Term premium can…
The Jetten I minority cabinet's first budget, lacking a parliamentary majority, is an opening offer to opposition parties, so debates could change it materially. ABN AMRO expects the 2026 deficit at 2.7% of GDP and 2027 at 2.2%, with limited funding-need…
Oil is higher but modest, with Brent at US$106 and WTI at US$102, pressing long-end bond yields on inflation fears. Markets price each of the Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE and BoJ for roughly 50bps of hikes by year-end. Equities slip broadly. Canadian existing home…
State Street expects the FOMC to hike on September 16 and again in December after August core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, though it disputes the case for tightening. The ECB delivered a second 25bp hike to a 2.50% deposit rate and signalled more. The BoJ is expected…