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Saxo Bank's quick take notes Brent trading near USD 105.4 after a USD 10 weekly range, as talk of a Qatar-mediated phased Strait of Hormuz deal with Iran offsets Houthi missile attacks on Saudi cities. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.50%, its highest…
ING expects the RBA to raise rates 25bp, citing tight labour markets, upside Q2 GDP surprise and firm inflation; August CPI seen at 4.1% YoY. China's official manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.1 and non-manufacturing at 49.2. Japan's services PPI seen at…
Global monetary conditions are tightening except in China, with elevated U.S. long-term yields and less offshore dollar support from the Gulf and China. Despite increased risk in the Gulf, crude flows through Hormuz have adapted but remain below pre-war…
The Xi-Trump Washington summit reinforced high-level dialogue but delivered limited breakthroughs. The key market outcome, announced before the summit, was a two-month extension of the US-China trade truce beyond its November expiry, removing near-term…
Trump and Xi met in Washington on 24 September 2026 and extended the US–China trade truce by two months to 10 January 2027, lowering near-term escalation risk. No detailed tariff cuts or firm commitments on rare earths and advanced chips emerged. Soybean…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
MUFG warns that a tougher external backdrop—higher US Treasury yields and Brent above $100/bbl—leaves Asia FX with a narrow path. The next US payrolls report is the key catalyst; consensus expects 100k jobs and unemployment at 4.1%. MUFG keeps a bias for…
Natixis reviews Q3-26 transportation credit. BMW's June China profit warning triggered an auto earnings reset; VW added 50,000 job cuts plus four German plant closures, and warned of about €10bn negative impact. Renault won a Moody's upgrade to investment…
US senators and governors have proposed banning diesel exports to relieve farmers. Due to legal delegation, President Trump could enact such a ban without further Congressional action. The US exports 1.0–1.5 mb/d, much to Latin America. Mexico, Chile, and…
MUFG's FX quant framework argues the 2026 yen appreciation differs from past corrections: the traditional drivers of structural yen weakness have shifted. The US-Japan 10-year nominal yield differential has narrowed to roughly 209bps from about 399bps during…
Natixis argues Germany's 2026 collective bargaining round should not trigger euro-area second-round effects. Nominal wage growth is forecast to slow to about 3.8% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 from 4.4% in 2025, with negotiated wages at 2.6% YoY in June 2026 and…
ING argues US manufacturing is genuinely reviving after three stagnant years, with the ISM production index back above 50 and order books firm. Growth of 1.5-2% annually over three years is forecast, but the headline masks bifurcation: advanced…
The dollar rally looks stretched after DXY broke above 101.0 on strong US PMIs, higher oil and soft risk sentiment; absent upside US data surprises, ING expects a correction toward 100-100.5. EUR/USD's break below 1.140 is stretched undervaluation, with…
US flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, with services at 58.7 and manufacturing at 57.0, prompting a sharp sell-off in Treasuries. The 10-year yield closed above 5.11%, a post-GFC high, and the 2-year reached 4.89%. Equities fell, the dollar…
Global nominal growth has accelerated to 5%-6%, its strongest in 20 years, as loose policy and AI capex offset an energy shock. Wellington's base case sees growth slowing but holding at or above trend, with the shock cutting 1.5-2 percentage points. The…
Commodity markets remain distorted by persistent conflicts, but fundamentals are gaining weight. Physical crude rebalancing is capping rallies, while non-OPEC supply growth and weak demand could build a surplus and pull prices lower. Europe's gas and power…
Natixis launched an anonymous two-minute survey on Brazil's October 4 general election and post-election expectations, including views on the policy outlook and the BRL. A second round would be held October 25 if no candidate wins over 50% of valid votes.…
Invesco's QQI tracks the Nasdaq International Innovators 100 Index, which screens non-US large and mid-caps on innovation inputs and outcomes rather than past growth. Index constituents average roughly 13% of sales on R&D versus 5% for MSCI ACWI ex USA and…
Euro area September flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.0, its highest since April 2023 and above the 51.8 consensus, led by new orders at 52.8. Manufacturing held at 52.7 and services activity climbed to a 10-month high of 53.0. Yet employment was flat…
Brent dropped below $99/bbl and WTI traded near $89/bbl, extending a six-session losing streak with cumulative losses above 9.5%. The sell-off followed the restart of Saudi Arabia's 7m b/d East-West pipeline, signs of US-Iran diplomatic progress, and an…