Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Daily argues that cyclical-sector payrolls, which fell in 2024 and 2025, are now accelerating, pointing to a brighter labor market and growth outlook. The firm says this stabilization, alongside median wage growth realigning with…
US senators and governors have proposed banning diesel exports to relieve farmers. Due to legal delegation, President Trump could enact such a ban without further Congressional action. The US exports 1.0–1.5 mb/d, much to Latin America. Mexico, Chile, and…
Statistics Canada's new methodology (CBSA exit-entry data and pending permit-extension applicants) revised recent non-permanent resident and total population estimates sharply higher, though history Q3-2021 to Q3-2025 was revised lower. Population now stands…
MUFG's FX quant framework argues the 2026 yen appreciation differs from past corrections: the traditional drivers of structural yen weakness have shifted. The US-Japan 10-year nominal yield differential has narrowed to roughly 209bps from about 399bps during…
Natixis argues Germany's 2026 collective bargaining round should not trigger euro-area second-round effects. Nominal wage growth is forecast to slow to about 3.8% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 from 4.4% in 2025, with negotiated wages at 2.6% YoY in June 2026 and…
The global fixed income sell-off continues without clear resolution, with the US dollar strengthening as US yields rose across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed roughly 60bps this month, approaching the scale of the March move after the…
Citi argues tokenization of collateral has moved from concept to practical use. Four case studies show real-time margining, US Treasuries mobilized across a 24-hour cycle without leaving the Federal Reserve, tokenized money market funds, and pre-IPO private…
Statistics Canada revised population upward by 301k (+0.7%), lifting annual growth to 0.5% in Q2 2026 and erasing apparent prior declines. Non-permanent residents, up 240k (+9.4%), drove 80% of the revision. Per-capita GDP now +0.7% y/y versus 1.7% before.…
SMBC revisits the gap between labor demand (job openings to unemployed workers) and wage growth, noting labor demand bottomed in late 2025 and rebounded in 2026 while wage growth decelerated linearly. Early indications suggest the gap may be closing, with the…
Natixis launched an anonymous two-minute survey on Brazil's October 4 general election and post-election expectations, including views on the policy outlook and the BRL. A second round would be held October 25 if no candidate wins over 50% of valid votes.…
Scotiabank's daily notes flag a 'funny season' for manipulated markets before the US midterms, with Trump jawboning oil lower on Iran talks despite unchanged nuclear stockpiles and war risk. Potash and diesel threats appear empty: Belarus has no surplus and a…
Euro area September flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.0, its highest since April 2023 and above the 51.8 consensus, led by new orders at 52.8. Manufacturing held at 52.7 and services activity climbed to a 10-month high of 53.0. Yet employment was flat…
The US dollar strengthened modestly even as Brent crude fell around 4%, after US and Iranian officials met at the UN General Assembly and indirect talks were described as very productive. Optimism on a deal to halt the conflict, and reports Iran may reopen…
This Natixis report, written by Benito Berber and Selin Aker, examines Brazil's upcoming general election and its potential impact on asset prices, particularly the Brazilian Real (BRL). The report is a marketing communication and not independent investment…
TD Economics expects US growth slightly above trend in 2026/27 on expansionary fiscal policy, loose financial conditions, AI investment and a resilient consumer, with unemployment drifting to 4% by Q1-2027. Core PCE is not seen reaching 2% until Q4-2027, so…
Germany's fiscal plan delivers short-term stimulus without lifting potential growth: the public deficit widens from 3.0% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026, peaks at 4.5% in 2027, then eases to 4.2% in 2028 as health and pension reforms tighten social security.…
The US dollar has strengthened after the Fed began tightening, pushing the dollar index back above 100.00 for the first time since early August, with 101.80 as next resistance. The move is supported by a roughly 55bp rise in the 2-year Treasury yield since…
SMBC's US rates team argues the inflation-unemployment mix implies a rising rule-consistent policy rate, supporting further hikes after September's 25bp move. The CPI-minus-unemployment gap, a monthly Taylor Rule proxy watched for over 40 years, has preceded…
Natixis argues that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a hesitant communicator who avoids forward guidance, has signaled his preferred gauges: inflation breadth, broad financial conditions and alternative underlying-inflation measures such as trimmed mean and median.…
State Street's weekly outlook sees the Middle East energy crisis as the biggest risk to an otherwise constructive macro backdrop, with US midterms raising escalation odds. The Fed hiked 25bp in September and may hold before possibly reversing one hike by…