Decline in crude oil fails to weaken the US dollarFX Daily Snapshot

中文标题

原油下跌未能削弱美元 · 外汇每日快照

MUFG09/23/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

The US dollar strengthened modestly even as Brent crude fell around 4%, after US and Iranian officials met at the UN General Assembly and indirect talks were described as very productive. Optimism on a deal to halt the conflict, and reports Iran may reopen the Strait of Hormuz, drove the oil decline. Rising US fuel costs — gasoline up 10% and diesel up 15% in September — add pressure for a deal before the mid-term elections.

Institution: MUFG
Published: 09/23/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI) · Fed Policy · EUR/USD
Time horizon: August 2025 · 2027 · near-term · February 2025 · 2001

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI Fed Policy · FED EUR/USD · EURUSD US Dollar (DXY) · DXY US 2Y Treasury · US2Y

Key arguments

The US dollar strengthened modestly despite a roughly 4% decline in Brent crude, suggesting the oil move did not undermine dollar support.
US and Iranian officials met at the UN General Assembly; indirect talks lasted three hours and were described as very productive, boosting optimism for a deal to halt the conflict.
Reports indicated Iran was willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days if certain conditions were agreed.
The timing of a US push for a deal makes sense given approaching mid-term elections and continued rises in energy prices.

Key numbers

Brent crude decline: around 4%
US retail gasoline price rise in September: 10%
US diesel price rise in September: 15%
Duration of indirect US-Iran negotiations: three hours

Main risks

The talks may not produce a deal, and optimism could fade, reversing the oil decline.
Iran's reported willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is conditional and may not materialize.
The report notes distribution restrictions and does not provide tax advice.

Corresponding source evidence

Retail gasoline prices in the US are up 10% so far in September and are approaching the highs set in May.
Brent crude oil is down today for the sixth consecutive day, which, if maintained, would be the longest period of decline in crude oil since August 2025. · August 2025
The ‘Race to the WH’ polling company now estimates the Democrats have a 70% chance of winning the Senate, winning 52.4 seats to the Republicans’ 47.6.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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