Population in Canada: AdjustmentsGLOBAL ECONOMICS
中文标题
加拿大人口：调整 · 全球经济
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Statistics Canada's new methodology (CBSA exit-entry data and pending permit-extension applicants) revised recent non-permanent resident and total population estimates sharply higher, though history Q3-2021 to Q3-2025 was revised lower. Population now stands at 41,798,407 (+80,343 q/q; +0.5% y/y). The NPR share rose to 6.7% from 6.2%. PR admissions and work-permit arrivals are near target pace, while study-permit arrivals reached only 18.2% of the 155,000 cap. Scotiabank expects the 5% NPR-share goal by end-2027 remains achievable but may take longer.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 09/24/2026
- Research topic
- Not explicitly stated
- Time horizon
- 2021 · 2025 · 2026 · year-end 2027 · 2024
Key arguments
- Two new methodology adjustments—CBSA entry/exit data and pending permit-extension applicants—revised NPR history (Q3-2021 to Q3-2025) lower and recent readings (Q4-2025 onward) substantially higher.
- Work-permit holders account for roughly 70-80% of total population adjustments over the past two years.
- PR admissions between January and July reached just over 222,000, about 59% of the annual target, with economic-class admissions tracking below the planned 63% share.
- International student arrivals are only 18.2% of the 155,000 cap, and with the 5% NPR-share goal by end-2027 still intact, the new Immigration Levels Plan may favor labour-market calibration over dogmatic caps.
Key numbers
- Total population (Jul 1, 2026)
- 41,798,407
- Quarterly population change
- +80,343 (0.2% q/q)
- NPR share of population
- 6.7% (from 6.2%)
- Study permit arrivals YTD (Jan-Jul 2026)
- 28,200 (18.2% of 155,000 cap)
- PR admissions YTD (Jan-Jul 2026)
- 222,000+ (~59% of 380,000 target)
Main risks
- The NPR stock and share are higher than previously estimated, and reaching the 5% share by end-2027 could take longer than assumed.
- New temporary arrivals, especially international students, are undershooting caps, weakening the inflow offset to rising exits.
- A new Immigration Levels Plan could tighten admissions further, altering population and labour-supply trajectories.
Corresponding source evidence
• As a result, significant revisions have taken place, with the historical (Q3 -2021 to Q3 - 2025) non -permanent resident (NPR) population data adjusted lower than previously estimated, while more recent readings (Q4 -25 onward) have seen total numbers revised substantially higher.
· 2021Given Canada ’s reliance on immigration for population growth, total quarterly population estimates saw a similar pattern occur, with recent upward revisions erasing the trend of consistent quarterly population contractions (though a single, minor contraction was still recorded over the final months of 2025).
· 2025• Therefore, lagged quarterly official national estimates now stand at 41,798,407, an increase of 80,343 (0.2% q/q) vs the previous quarter (which, in turn, was revised to 41,718,064, approximately 0.7% greater than what was initially reported in June).
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How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 09/24/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction