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Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
Canada lost 68.3k jobs in September, far worse than the 10k consensus gain. Scotiabank dismisses the report as a statistical anomaly, citing a small sample, supply-side factors (sick workers, school transition), and implausible public sector losses. The…
TD Economics' October 9, 2026 weekly review flags the September CPI report (Oct 14) as the key event, with consensus at 3.6% y/y headline and 2.5% y/y core. Oil traded in a $88-93/bbl WTI range as markets weighed Hormuz flows, Middle East tensions and…
China's growth momentum has improved, as composite PMIs from NBS and RatingDog returned to expansion in September for the first time since June, supported by fiscal measures after Q1 underdelivery. The construction PMI rebounded 3.4 points from a…
The USD sits near year-to-date highs with momentum easing. MUFG expects the Fed to hold rates this month absent a big September CPI upside surprise, noting recent USD strength increasingly reflects overseas weakness, notably euro area energy-shock and French…
Canada shed 68,000 jobs in September, following a 42,000 decline in August, with 48,000 of the losses among those aged 15-24 and notable drops in education and health care. The unemployment rate rose to 6.5% but remains below year-ago levels. RBC expects the…
SMBC argues the labor market is balanced at full employment with unemployment near 4.2% and wage growth decelerating, possibly because AI-related job insecurity is suppressing worker bargaining power, though low demand in a low-hiring environment is an…
Italy has passed a new electoral law aimed at curbing fragmentation and encouraging pre-election coalitions, which briefly tightened the 10Y BTP-Bund spread but left the move limited given implementation risk. Natixis forecasts the spread at 90bp by end-2026…
MUFG expects Asia FX to trade range-bound in the week ahead, driven by US September CPI, Treasury yields and China activity, inflation and credit data. A softer US inflation print would support high-yielding Asian currencies and help stem equity outflows,…
Scotiabank expects no change in Canadian September employment (0k) and unemployment at 6.5%, versus consensus of +10k. US University of Michigan October sentiment is forecast at 47.0, down from 48.1, with consumers bleak on the outlook yet still spending as…
Natixis's Americas note flags Brazilian election victory for Bolsonaro alongside a surprise Peru hold: BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25% when a 25bp hike was expected, citing low supercore inflation of 1.8% y/y despite headline at 4.5%. The note also says…
Natixis expects September core CPI at 0.19% m/m and headline CPI at 0.6% m/m, both in line with consensus, reinforcing its view that underlying inflation keeps drifting lower. It sees little evidence of reacceleration: tariff and energy shocks are acyclical…
MUFG notes the euro is stabilising after sliding from 1.1600 to 1.1200 on higher global yields, French fiscal concerns before April/May presidential elections and a terms-of-trade hit from refined energy prices. German GDP forecasts were revised up to 1.3%…
The dollar may stay firm near term on a hawkish Fed and fragile markets, with short-lived dips. EUR/USD is back above 1.120 but the French risk premium persists, and 1.110/1.112 could be tested. Canadian September job rebound should support a December BoC…
CORRA has frequently set 0-5bps above the BoC's target since mid-2023, with volatility rising and occasional deviations above 5bps. BoC measures — a 5bp deposit-rate cut, more term repos and infrastructure changes — have not fully resolved the pressure,…
The dollar index holds near year-to-date highs as US rate markets cut expected October Fed hikes to about 5bps from 10bps, with FOMC minutes showing no urgency; gains are driven more by euro-area fiscal and political risk than domestic data, as French-German…
August US producer prices were mixed: headline PPI rose 0.4% m/m and core 0.2% m/m, with 10bp upward revisions to July. Wholesaler margins received climbed 4.5% y/y, above the 2010-2019 range that prevailed alongside 2% inflation. Using today's PPI detail,…
Bonds are under pressure from higher oil prices on escalating Strait of Hormuz attacks, renewed EGB fractures, and a hawkish global central bank tone (RBI hike, possible BCRP move). Treasury and Canadian yields rose in bear steepeners, with long-end yields up…
Natixis argues that the exceptional summer 2026 heatwaves acted as a persistent but temporary cost-push shock to euro area prices, not growth. Local projections on a 1995-2025 panel show energy prices rising 0.81pp on impact and food prices 0.46pp, with food…
Nomura forecasts fewer rate hikes than markets price, viewing this as a resumption of hiking cycles with policy rates near or above neutral and inflation largely cost-push. It expects a Fed hike in December then an extended hold, two ECB hikes to a 3.00% depo…