Growth resilience in Europe as trade tensions with China mountFX Daily Snapshot

中文标题

欧洲增长韧性显现，对华贸易紧张局势升温 · 外汇每日快照

MUFG10/09/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

MUFG notes the euro is stabilising after sliding from 1.1600 to 1.1200 on higher global yields, French fiscal concerns before April/May presidential elections and a terms-of-trade hit from refined energy prices. German GDP forecasts were revised up to 1.3% and 1.1%, with industrial production up 2.0% in August, supporting current ECB hike pricing. A European delegation is in China to discuss the yuan; CNY REER remains 14.5% below its 2022 peak.

Institution: MUFG
Published: 10/09/2026
Research topic: Natural Gas · EUR/USD · USD/JPY
Time horizon: this year · near-term · 2001

Natural Gas · NATGAS EUR/USD · EURUSD USD/JPY · USDJPY

Key arguments

Euro stabilising after falling from 1.1600 to 1.1200 on rising global yields and French fiscal worries ahead of April/May elections.
Higher refined energy prices pose a terms-of-trade risk; further jumps in natural gas and diesel would likely hurt European economies.
European resilience, led by German growth upgrades and a 2.0% August industrial production rise, supports current ECB hike pricing.
A European delegation is meeting China to discuss the yuan, with CNY REER still 14.5% below its 2022 peak.

Key numbers

EUR/USD range cited: 1.1600 to 1.1200
Germany GDP growth projection (this year): 1.3%
Germany GDP growth projection (next year): 1.1%
Germany industrial production (August): +2.0%
CNY REER vs 2022 peak: -14.5%

Main risks

Further notable jumps in natural gas and diesel prices would likely hurt European economies.
Ongoing French fiscal concerns ahead of April/May presidential elections.
Escalating EU-China trade tensions threaten the euro's stabilisation.

Corresponding source evidence

Increased concerns over a terms of trade hit from rising refined energy prices has also played a role and any further notable jumps in natural gas and diesel prices would likely hurt the economies in Europe.
Still, we continue to see evidence of economic resilience in Europe that could help stabilise the euro at these lower levels.
Growth had been downgraded in response to the war but the new estimate for this year is above the 1.0% estimate at the start of the year underlining the level of resilience. · this year

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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