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The latest 50% U.S. tariffs add downside risk, although we expect the effects will be concentrated heavily in specific exposed sectors/products with limited aggregate economic growth implications.

Ebrard stated that Mexico is seeking a reduction in auto tariffs to 15% from 25%, which would be the same level that the U.S. and Canada had reportedly agreed to before talks broke down.

Tariffs on servers would particularly impact Mexico, as these goods have accounted for a large share of the rise in Mexican exports in recent quarters

More than 80% of Canadian exports continue to enter the U.S. duty-free under CUSMA, helping preserve the broader growth backdrop.

Brent crude oil topped USD 95 after the US-Iran conflict escalated further as American forces launched fresh strikes and Tehran retaliated.

Oil prices are under slightly further upward pressure this morning after surging yesterday because of US-Iran hostilities.

Brent crude has declined around 7.4% this week amid a less confrontational US-Iran backdrop.

Oil: Crude prices rebounded strongly on Wednesday, with Brent rising from below USD 86 to near USD 90 on reports of a potential Russian escalation in Ukraine, before reversing on news of an Iranian revenue-sharing agreement covering shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher yields also matter because they raise the discount rate used to value future earnings, putting pressure on equity multiples — especially for companies whose profits sit further into the future.

Swedish small caps continue to stand out as attractive, trading at a historically wide discount to larger companies.

Higher long-term bond yields add a separate valuation headwind for Nvidia and other long-duration AI stocks.

The seven energy majors shown in the table - ExxonMobil, Equinor, ConocoPhillips, Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and BP - have delivered an average year-over-year return of 38.5%, compared with 18% for the Magnificent Seven technology stocks.

REITs have outperformed broader equities in 2026, as improving property fundamentals, secular growth themes, and healthy balance sheets help offset pressure from elevated interest rates over the year.

Lodging and resort REITs have been the strongest performers this year, returning 40.04%, supported by resilient leisure spending and a continued recovery in business and group travel.

Gold Spot ($/oz) 4,322 -5.9% 6.6%

Gold came under pressure on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signalled that policymakers remain focused on returning inflation to the 2% target. This dampens expectations for an imminent easing in monetary policy. The comments supported the US dollar and weighed on gold prices.

Gold: Bullion continues to consolidate following last week’s surge, with prices so far finding support below USD 4,600, ahead of the USD 4,555 level, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the latest rally. Attention is now turning to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium tomorrow, with markets looking for further guidance on the interest-rate outlook and how policymakers view the balance between inflation, growth and financial conditions. Following the latest inflation print, one full 25-basis-point hike is now priced by December.

Looking ahead, the draft budget projects fiscal consolidation from 2028, with the deficit narrowing by 0.5ppt each year.

With a public deficit expected this year and next at above 5% of GDP, we forecast a continued increase of public debt to reach around 118% of GDP by 2028.

Under unchanged policies, the European Commission's spring forecasts projected a deficit of 5.7% of GDP in 2027, pushing public debt up to 120.2% of GDP.

Follow the ecosystem: installed devices and Services growing together matter more than one quarter of iPhone sales.

Investors therefore need to look beyond whether Broadcom “beats”. More important will be what management says about the next stage: how quickly custom processors ramp, whether new customers add meaningful revenue, and whether AI networking grows alongside compute.

the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield lifted as high as 4.81% after rising Monday above the key 4.75% level for the first time since January 2025. The next focus is 5.00%, a level that only traded briefly in late 2023 since 2007.

A jump in yields occurred around the release of the July PCE inflation data (core PCE as expected but headline PCE data a bit hotter than expected as noted above) and the release of the revised GDP core price index for Q2, which was revised higher to an annualized rate of 3.6% from 3.4%. The benchmark 2-year Treasury yield rose back above 4.21% after trading below 4.17% intraday, while the benchmark 10-year reversed less of Tuesday’s drop in yields, ending the day near 4.65% after dipping as low as 4.613%.

EURUSD traded near the low of the 24-hour and two-week range at 1.1580.

She believes any recent weakness should be understood as cyclical rather than structural because the dollar’s dominance remains unchallenged

Healthcare demand is relatively insensitive to interest rates and the economic cycle. Large pharmaceutical and healthcare companies with strong cash generation may therefore offer relatively resilient earnings if higher rates begin to slow economic growth.

Companies with strong brands, recurring demand and pricing power may be better able to maintain cash generation as financing conditions tighten.

Nevertheless, with headline inflation back above 3%, a sustained rise in energy prices would increase pressure on the ECB to respond.

The European Central Bank itself was quick to signal that it stands by its hawkish intentions, and Isabel Schnabel is more likely to reiterate that stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

Its advantage sits closer to the customer. Apple controls the phone, operating system, headphones, watch and computer around them. If AI models become increasingly interchangeable, Apple can let others spend heavily building the engines while it controls the dashboard.

Ternus must protect the ecosystem, allocate enormous cash flows sensibly and avoid expensive distractions. A great moat gives management room to make mistakes. It does not make those mistakes free.

None needs to become the next iPhone to create value. A foldable phone can encourage upgrades. A home device can extend Apple’s ecosystem into another room. Smarter AirPods can make the iPhone more useful without replacing it.

Listed crypto took the brunt of the risk-off session while the coins held up better.

Quality financials, energy, commodities and defensive sectors can prove more resilient, while small caps, property, consumer discretionary and long-duration growth face a higher funding or valuation hurdle.

Commodity producers can benefit when higher rates are being driven by stronger nominal growth, inflation, supply constraints or geopolitical risks.

The US 3-2-1 crack spread has reached USD 63 per barrel, while even stronger European margins reflect diesel above USD 200 per barrel and expensive natural gas.

EU gas is trading near USD 142 per barrel of oil equivalent, more than USD 45 above Brent and around eight times the prevailing US natural gas price.

The Magnificent Seven are spending vast sums today to support earnings expected tomorrow. The Energy Seven are harvesting exceptional cash flow today from scarcity, elevated prices and infrastructure that already exists.

AI remains a powerful structural growth theme. However, its expanding requirement for electricity, natural gas, backup generation and grid infrastructure means some of its most immediate profits are accruing not only to those developing the technology, but also to those supplying the molecules and electrons needed to run it.

WTI crude surged 5.2% to USD90.22/bbl, while Brent jumped 4.6% to USD94.65/bbl. The selloff in global bonds was equally striking: Japan’s 10 -year government bond yield reached 3.0% for the first time since 1996

Overall, we view the development as mildly negative for near-term credit metrics but supportive of longer-term pipeline visibility and geographic rebalancing.

Japan’s 10 -year government bond yield reached 3.0% for the first time since 1996

Tencent Music Entertainment Group may issue USD-denominated 5Y and/or 10Y bonds.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also signaled that additional sanctions targeting Iranian banks could be announced this week.

we expect the ECB’s growth and inflation forecasts to be revised upwards slightly, mainly due to earlier statistical upward revisions of first-quarter growth and slightly higher oil prices.

But if debt sustainability concerns grow, possibly ahead of next year's French presidential elections, markets might want to test the ECB.

Some tightening of financing conditions can ease the ECB’s job; too much tightening, and unequal tightening, would bring new problems.

the possibility of an early exit for Christine Lagarde as ECB president and the question of who would be her successor. Some of the names of possible candidates currently circulating have, at least in the past, not been strong supporters of quantitative easing.

Prefunding should ultimately reduce these increases, but the draft budget is clearly negative for the CZGB market.