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But overall they hit about 5% of our exports to the US (ed. even less total) and we don't expect them to be a big effect.

We look for Canada’s trade surplus to widen to $4.2 billion in July from $3.9 billion in June.

Market consensus expects export growth to moderate to 61.4% YoY, from a revised 62.9%

imports are expected to slow to 25.2% YoY, from 26.5%.

Nominal Canadian exports should edge up about 0.1% in July, supported by an increase in vehicle shipments.

We anticipate a 0.3% contraction for imports, driving a surplus expansion.

U.S. tariffs impact about 5% of Canadian exports to the United States, and about 0.4% of Canadian gross domestic product and jobs.

Consider that more than half the value of Canadian vehicle exports to the U.S. comes from imported U.S. parts purchased during assembly. Less than a third reflects Canadian value-added production with the remainder sourced from foreign markets like Mexico. Deep integration means tariffs on any partner in the North American free trade block would raise costs across the entire North American auto sector, eroding competitiveness against offshore manufacturers like China.

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs announced account for about 3% of Canadian imports and the list has already been modified (removing seafood products, adding some from other product groups like stone and copper products,)

Additional tariffs on the auto sector are still a risk, but more than any other industry, it would negatively impact the U.S. along with Canadian exporters.

The purpose of retaliatory trade measures, typically, is to cause as visible of a disruption to foreign exporters as possible, while limiting the impact on domestic importers. In essence, ideally nobody pays retaliatory tariffs. The idea is they create an incentive for Canadian businesses to import from non-U.S. destinations or purchase from domestic suppliers, and/or substitute to alternative products.

Montana, North Dakota, Maine and Vermont look particularly exposed, given geographic proximity and mix of sectors targeted by both sides. Each of those states do a majority of their international trade with Canada (i.e., more than 50% of combined imports and exports).

Higher for longer is hawkish for many central banks.

positioning has been built around a hawkish tone intended to anchor long yields.

The Bank of Korea delivered a back-to-back 25 basis point rise to 3.00% in a six-to-one decision, citing an unprecedented semiconductor boom driving stronger-than-expected growth.

If the Federal Reserve is truly serious about potentially renewing rate hikes, then the BoC could be dragged higher given a multi-decade high on the current policy rate spread (chart 4).

He may very well be best advised to do some of both by providing some guidance—howsoever veiled—on nearer term interpretations while sharing initial perspectives on the tentative work fo the task forces.

The median expectation is for the policy rate to reach 3.25% in six months' time.

Consensus unanimously expects a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday.

Consensus is almost unanimous in expecting Negara to hold its overnight rate at 2.75% on Thursday.

Such a step, if taken, will aim to reduce the Riksbank’s financial risk. According to the Executive Board, it should not be regarded as an action motivated by monetary policy.

However, we do not believe that the amount proposed, about SEK 100 billion, is large enough to generate lasting krona appreciation.

The Ministry of Finance has proposed a 2027 state budget deficit of CZK389bn, implying a general government deficit of 3.5% of GDP, an increase from this year's 2.6% and the highest since 2023.

It can meet this target for European Commission reporting by invoking the escape clause for defence spending, which lowers the reported deficit to 2.8% of GDP.

Public debt has risen to 118% of GDP, while the deficit remains well above pre-Covid levels at 5.1% of GDP, and will hardly stabilise this year.

The longer rates stay elevated, the greater the fiscal strain and the stronger the potential focus on debt sustainability, currency debasement and eventual policy intervention.

the Treasury Secretary Bessent’s announcement of at least doubling the size of Treasury buybacks will not move the needle without a reduced fiscal deficit.

As a result, additional fiscal consolidation measures will be needed in 2026 if the government is to keep the public deficit below 5%

This kind of Treasury intervention is irrelevant unless the fiscal deficit is reduced.

High bond yields have spurred the US government into manoeuvres to contain debt-servicing costs.

markets will probably remain skeptical about the fiscal outlook, leading to a weaker USD — especially if the authorities step up their actions to cap upward pressure on US yields.

It is of course a difficult balancing act, but when the inflation trend allows it, the krona could benefit from initiatives to generate investment opportunities in such areas as digital and physical infrastructure.

Technology and consumer discretionary led declines while energy outperformed.

as rising oil prices, inflation and bond yields pressured equities

The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.4%, although technology almost entirely drove the rally and the equal-weight S&P 500 fell 0.3%.

Equity markets have shown resilience despite heightened geopolitical tensions related to Iran.

Despite geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices, the Swedish equity market have remained resilient

As long as earnings momentum remains positive, there is further upside potential.

Macklem warned that inflation risk had pivoted higher because the longer the conflict in the Middle East persists, the greater the pass through risk of higher oil into other prices.

This track record offers no guarantees for the future, not least because it was built in an era of open global trade and relatively stable geopolitics, which are now under strain.

The situation in the Middle East remains fluid, with both Washington and Tehran signaling that they are prepared to respond to further attacks.

given the persistent uncertainty surrounding the medium-term impact of the prolonged US-Iran conflict on Poland's economy

Certainly, the CEE FX complex seems to have taken note of the potential for escalation in the conflict, with investors preferring to scale back heavily overweight positions in Hungary.

At the same time, risks are increasing should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed for an extended period.

Conditions are even tighter in Europe, where diesel has risen above USD 200 per barrel, more than USD 105 above Brent and well above the USD 28 per barrel at which the spread traded this time last year.

higher energy prices pushing up global energy inflation, including in Canada

still-elevated global energy prices as a result of the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely closed

It was noted that one of the reasons gas prices had such an inflationary impact in 2022, aside from their larger increase than in the current situation, was the role of gas as the marginal factor for electricity production at that time.

The backdrop is one where the relief in energy markets has proved only fleeting, especially as natural gas prices in Europe have once again come closer to recent peaks.

new U.S. tariffs on about 5% of Canadian exports adding to downside economic growth risks