776 evidence-backed views published in the latest 7 days, newest first with same-topic and same-event views grouped together.
We expect the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 4.2% on the back of higher participation from prime-age workers.
Global sustainable bond issuance grew Q1 2026, with USD 503bn in issuance despite significant geopolitical headwinds.
Within the chemicals, airlines, and transportation & logistics sectors, sustainable bond issuance remains below 1% of the broader market.
Allocations of the bonds are concentrated in green methanol and chemical recycling.
With AccelerateEU, the Commission is taking actions to manage short-terms supply risk, whilst renewing its push for electrification and alternative fuels.
Joint policy initiatives such as the US-India COMPACT and TRUST are creating a stable and conducive environment for investment across technology, manufacturing and other strategic sectors.
ETS and SAF mandates are reshaping the economics of European aviation. Higher carbon and fuel costs will pressure margins.
Mitigation will rely on pass-through to customers, fleet network optimisation, policy certainty, and improved access to competitively priced SAF and carbon removals.
The new war in the Middle East is sparking policy action to cut energy import dependency and enhance affordability.
Under the Commission’s proposal, EU ETS prices could reach EUR 180–270/t by 2040, increasing steel prices by 50–100% and cement by 80–135%.
Under the Commission’s proposal, EU ETS prices could reach EUR 180–270/t by 2040, increasing steel prices by 50–100% and cement by 80–135%.
Hong Kong is becoming less of a proxy for China’s exports and more exposed to China’s demand for foreign technology .
Due to the US tariffs, the relevance of Chinese exports to the US, which was the second largest trade route, has declined massively.
The realistic outcome, then, is not a sealed border but an asymmetric split: a genuine fracture at the level of hardware and infrastructure beneath a software layer that stays porous.
Open-weight models — DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi — are already downloaded and run worldwide, and once weights are released they cannot be recalled.
Advanced chips, the lithography that makes them and the high-bandwidth memory have developed into essential chokepoints in the U.S. quest for AI dominance.
It fragments the market — two chip ecosystems, two sets of standards, duplicated infrastructure — without delivering the security either side is chasing, because the capabilities each is trying to contain slip across the divide regardless.
A ban on Chinese models would hollow out its own economy — and, given how porous the software layer is, would not even work.
The Singapore lesson is that autonomy and bloc membership coexist only until someone forces the question.
For the moment, Europe is relinquishing its leverage to the U.S. virtually for free.
The other risk is that China manages to crack the code of advanced lithography and the current chokepoint disappears. That would only deepen the bifurcation of AI hardware.
Beijing by building WAICO as a permanent body speaking for the Global South, with Xi Jinping's call for an order in which “no country should dominate” serving as its own bid to lead.
The proposal also includes a 5-9% rise in public sector wages, while the government last week approved minimum wage increases of 11.2% in 2027 and 8% in 2028. This puts the CNB’s 5.7% wage-growth forecast at risk.
do expect core inflation to rise further in the months ahead.
the prices paid component remains very firm at 71.1, indicating input costs, such as energy, commodities and semiconductors, continue to increase at a rapid pace.
A gradual resumption of oil supplies should reinforce the disinflationary trend evident in recent US data.
We note that upcoming methodological revisions to the calculation of prices for digital goods and financial services could lower PCE inflation by 0.2 percentage points.
CommBank expects US inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target as a result.
German headline inflation came in at 2.9% year-on-year in August, from 2.8% YoY in July.
but the upcoming CPI data due September 11 will also be key.
July CPI exceeded expectations sequentially and annually, across both the headline and trimmed mean measures.
Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.4% YoY
oil prices would stay higher for longer, pushing up headline inflation to above 3% and keeping it there at least until year-end.
However, strong statistical base effects in fuel prices may bring CPI inflation down towards the NBP's 2.5% target around the turn of the first and second quarters of 2027.
Inflation is expected to peak at lower levels, but remain above target in major economies with geopolitical tensions and climate patterns still posing risks to energy and food prices.
CommBank says a sustained increase in energy inflation could also spill over into underlying inflation, especially if demand remains strong.
Our analysis suggests construction activity continues to lead new dwelling purchase inflation with a meaningful lag (Figure 3), implying housing-related CPI pressures may remain sticky even as the housing approvals cycle cools.
services inflation slowed down for the second month in a row, to 2.8% YoY, from 2.9% YoY in July.
the current inflation picture remains structurally different from the inflation wave in 2022.
There were very little signs of knock-on or indirect effects of higher energy prices on the rest of the economy.
Average CPI inflation in EMs reached 6.1% y/y in July vs. 6.4% in June.
We expect inflation to remain elevated over the coming months, close to the upper limit of the National Bank of Poland's target range.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) growth accelerated to 9.7% YoY in July 2026 from 9.2% in June, with stronger growth in mining and manufacturing.
Euro Area: HICP inflation, unemployment rate, retail sales.
Largely driven by the 23% increase in the minimum wage and the conflict in Iran, we currently forecast inflation at 6.6% in 2026, above the target range.
Going forward, El Niño could push inflation higher in late 2026 and H1 2027 through higher electricity and food prices.
Inflation also increased in August, as expected, rising to 2.4% from 2.1% in July, largely because of higher energy prices.
From a quick glance at the result, you wouldn’t know there had been a war at all. The inflation rate of this basket has barely budged.
Quite the opposite. Food inflation is trending down – and it’s virtually zero. Here in Britain, the level of food prices is actually lower than it was three months ago.
We expect tariff effects on inflation to slowly ebb by year-end.