The global economy shows resilience despite geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy prices. The Fed is expected to cut rates in December, while the ECB may hike precautionarily. Swedish GDP growth is revised up to 2.7% in 2026. The Riksbank is expected to…
Natixis expects the August nonfarm payrolls report to show weak job growth of 25k, below consensus, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2% as participation normalizes. The labor market is stable but with underlying softness, and while inflation remains…
SEB's Sustainable Finance Outlook discusses EU ETS reform impacts on heavy industry, construction, and real estate, projecting carbon prices of EUR 180-270/t by 2040 that could raise steel and cement costs and affect building margins, while sustainable bond…
Hong Kong's entrepot role is shifting from distributing Chinese-made goods to sourcing foreign goods for China, driven by AI-related semiconductor demand. Chinese-origin re-exports fell from 61% to 40% of total, while foreign-origin rose to 60%.
Natixis argues that global AI will not split into two clean blocs but will fracture asymmetrically: hardware and infrastructure (chips, lithography, memory) will bifurcate between the U.S. and China, while the software/model layer remains porous due to open…
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% as expected. The statement highlighted elevated uncertainty from Middle East conflict and trade breakdown, while acknowledging stronger Q2 growth. It noted headline inflation around 3% but underlying pressures…
TD Economics notes Canada has reduced interprovincial labor mobility barriers but administrative hurdles persist, especially in healthcare and construction, where shortages will intensify; further reforms like Ontario's as-of-right certification could boost…
ING THINK reports that escalating Middle East tensions have driven crude oil, diesel cracks, and European gas prices higher, while gold prices eased. The report also highlights soybean price strength due to US biofuel policy and weather concerns.
ING expects the dollar to strengthen further, driven by a hawkish Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh and higher energy prices, with DXY grinding higher to 100.10/20. EUR/USD is seen dropping towards 1.15 by month-end, USD/CHF challenging July highs near 0.82, and…
ING expects the ECB to deliver a 25bp rate hike at next week's meeting, positioning it as an 'insurance' move amid resilient growth, elevated energy prices, and market turmoil. The bank sees limited scope for further hikes beyond September, noting the deposit…
ING THINK discusses the Czech 2027 draft budget, which widens the deficit and raises borrowing needs to a record high, pressuring Czech government bonds and increasing the risk of a CNB rate hike.
The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting in September 2026, balancing domestic recovery against elevated risks from US tariffs and higher energy prices. RBC expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026, with…
The report from OCBC Research on 2 September 2026 highlights a risk-off day in markets, driven by US-Iran conflict escalation and a global bond rout, leading to surging oil prices and higher Treasury yields. Credit spreads widened in IG and HY, while Asia USD…
Follow our podcasts by searching ‘ OCBC Research Insights ’ on Telegram! 1 By Global Markets | 2 September 2026 Daily Treasury Outlook Highlights Global: US equities sold off broadly at the start of September as a deepening global bond rout and…
The report notes a broad risk-off tone with stocks lower and yields up, driven by oil price pressures from renewed US-Iran hostilities and hawkish surprises, particularly from the BoJ. The BoC is expected to hold rates this meeting and wait for October's…
Saxo Bank's article discusses the impact of rising bond yields (5% on the US 10-year) on equity markets, emphasizing the need for selectivity. It identifies winners (cash-generative companies with strong balance sheets, financials, energy, commodities,…
Saxo Bank's report highlights that energy majors have strongly outperformed Big Tech amid AI-driven investment cycles. Seven energy majors delivered 38.5% average returns versus 18% for the Magnificent Seven, driven by commodity scarcity and elevated refining…
Saxo Bank analyzes Apple's CEO transition to John Ternus, emphasizing that he inherits a powerful ecosystem rather than a turnaround. The key focus for investors should be on ecosystem growth, services momentum, product innovation, and capital allocation. AI…
Saxo Bank reports that oil prices surged above USD 95 on heightened US-Iran tensions, which fanned inflation and rate-hike fears, leading to a global selloff in equities and bonds. The yen showed strength on hawkish BoJ rhetoric, and the NZ dollar fell after…
Natixis US Rates Technical Chartbook for September 1, 2026, by John Briggs, provides technical analysis of US Treasury yields and curves. Key points include bearish momentum in 10-year Bund yields, resistance levels for US 2s/5s/10s/30s yields, curve…