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• Sovereign 30-year yields have reached their highest levels since the Global Financial Crisis in many countries • Markets expect the Federal Funds rate to rise to around 4.25% over the next year • Global spending on artificial intelligence, net zero, defence…
• Australia’s economy is entering a cyclical slowdown, with growth expected to moderate through the rest of 2026 before gradually picking up in 2027. • Private demand is becoming a more important driver of growth, supported by business investment, including…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com SCOTIABANK FORECAST September 9, 2026 Contributors Olivier Gervais Director, Modelling and…
Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
1 FX Special Focus FX Focus Vietnam – A more stable USD/VND, SBV on hold Key Points ▪ We are forecasting USD/VND to be more stable. We see USD/VND at 26,000-26,100 over the next few months into end-2026, before moving towards 26,200-26,300…
Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to hike interest rates one final time in November to 4.60%, citing persistent inflation and structural economic challenges. Australia's economy is slowing, but underlying inflation remains above target due to supply shocks,…
The Japanese yen extended its rebound, pushing USD/JPY below 153.00 for the first time since February, driven by technical breaks, hawkish BoJ repricing, and supportive domestic data. The MoF confirmed record intervention, and the US appears to have pressured…
Westpac has revised its Australian cash rate outlook, making a November 2026 hike the base case, citing resilient households and a data centre boom. GDP growth forecasts are upgraded, but inflation and rate cuts are pushed later.
Declining correlations, rising tracking error, and greater country-level dispersion suggest international markets are delivering increasingly distinct outcomes from US equities. While global equity markets still share a common equity beta, their return paths…
ING expects a single Fed rate hike in September 2026, delaying but not cancelling a cyclical dollar decline projected for spring 2027. EUR/USD is forecast to end 2026 around 1.16, with USD/JPY likely trading in a 155-160 range near term. High yielders and…
ING's September 2026 G10 FX outlook sees the dollar's downtrend delayed by an expected 25bp Fed hike on 16 September, prompting a cut in the year-end EUR/USD forecast. EUR/USD is expected to stay subdued until spring when US inflation approaches 2%. USD/JPY…
OCBC's Daily Treasury Outlook for September 7, 2026, highlights a stronger-than-expected US jobs report that has elevated Fed rate hike expectations, with markets pricing around a 60% chance of a September hike. Treasury yields rose, and the S&P 500 fell…
Westpac expects the RBNZ to keep the OCR unchanged in October before hiking by 25bp in December, with the OCR peaking at 3.28% by end-2029 and reaching 4% by September 2027. Inflation remains elevated, and the NZD is seen consolidating with a year-end target…
Westpac's latest Australia & NZ Weekly report discusses the Q2 2026 national accounts, which were seen as an 'inkblot test' with hawkish and dovish interpretations. Westpac expects the RBNZ to pause in October and hike in December, with a peak of 4.00% by…
Scotiabank Economics maintains its June forecast with Canada's growth expected at 0.9% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, while the Bank of Canada is likely to raise rates twice late this year. The US GDP growth forecast is 2.0% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027, with the…
Scotiabank Economics expects the upcoming week to feature escalation risks in the Canada-US tariff war, with Canada imposing retaliatory tariffs on C$28 billion of US imports, while Canada pivots toward attracting C$1 trillion in investments over five years.…
Scotiabank Economics' Daily Points for September 4, 2026, highlights that markets await US and Canadian jobs reports, with Canada testing recent strong momentum and US nonfarm payrolls expected to be lacklustre. German factory orders show strength, and BoC…
Natixis assesses Asian currencies using PPP and BEER models, finding JPY, KRW, IDR, INR undervalued and AUD overvalued. It highlights policy-driven misalignments and potential corrections.
Westpac's national accounts analysis for Q2 2026 highlights that the data can be interpreted hawkishly or dovishly, but emphasizes the importance of considering all signals, including the labour market, which is showing signs of easing and spare capacity. The…
Westpac notes the Australian dollar ended the week strong near 0.72 despite robust US jobs data, as Fed Governor Waller's less hawkish tone and other factors supported AUD. Key events ahead include US inflation data which may influence Fed's September rate…