'Australia and NZ Weekly'
中文标题
澳大利亚与新西兰周报
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Westpac's latest Australia & NZ Weekly report discusses the Q2 2026 national accounts, which were seen as an 'inkblot test' with hawkish and dovish interpretations. Westpac expects the RBNZ to pause in October and hike in December, with a peak of 4.00% by September 2027. The report also covers US Fed policy, where Westpac believes the FOMC can remain on hold through 2028 if disinflation resumes, and provides forecasts for Australian and New Zealand interest rates, exchange rates, and economic growth.
- Institution
- Westpac / Westpac IQ
- Published
- 09/06/2026
- Research topic
- Central bank policy · New Zealand interest rates
- Time horizon
- 2029
Key arguments
- Q2 2026 GDP growth of 2.1% y/y was slightly above RBA expectations and above potential growth, but momentum slowed from 2.8% annualized in H2 2025 to 1.5% in H1 2026.
- Household consumption growth of 0.4% in Q2 was largely driven by a surge in EV sales (0.27ppts of the gain) due to the energy price spike, while the savings ratio rose due to stronger real disposable incomes.
- The US Fed is expected to remain on hold through 2028 if disinflation resumes, as evidenced by consumers' unwillingness to accept full cost passthrough, but a hike in September/November could lead to corrective cuts in late-2027 or 2028.
- RBNZ is expected to pause in October and hike by 25bps in December, as signaled by their OCR forecast of 2.81% for Q4 2026, with further hikes to reach 4.00% by September 2027.
- The Australian housing market is softening, with home prices down 3.6% from their March peak and sales volumes 15% lower on a rolling 3-month basis, but construction activity remains supported by a pipeline of approved projects.
Key numbers
- RBNZ OCR forecast for Q4 2026
- 2.81%
- RBNZ cash rate peak forecast
- 4.00% by September 2027
- Australia cash rate forecast for Sep-27
- 4.10%
- Australia 10-year bond yield forecast for Dec-26
- 4.85%
- Australia GDP growth forecast for 2026
- 1.2%
- Australia trimmed mean CPI forecast for 2026
- 2.7%
- US Fed funds rate forecast for end-2026
- 3.625%
- US 10-year bond yield forecast for Dec-26
- 4.65%
Main risks
- Inflation may not decelerate as expected, leading to further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and other central banks.
- The housing market downturn could be deeper than anticipated, weighing on economic growth.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Middle East, could cause renewed energy price spikes, pressuring inflation.
- The labour market may weaken more than forecast, dampening consumer spending.
- Rate hikes by the RBNZ could derail the economic recovery in New Zealand.
Corresponding source evidence
The OCR is projected to rise gradually over the coming years to a peak of 3.28% at the end of 2029.
· 2029
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
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How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Westpac / Westpac IQ on 09/06/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction