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The US dollar extended its rally, pushing the dollar index toward June's year-to-date high of 101.80, even after August core PCE inflation slowed to 3.0% year-on-year versus 3.3% expected, with downward revisions trimming 36bps. The three-month annualized…
MUFG's October 2026 FX outlook sees a US dollar-led world: DXY closed September up 2.0% after the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, with 10-year UST yields up 53bps. Six G10 central banks hiked, and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy prices elevated.…
MUFG forecasts Asian currencies to post a modest aggregate appreciation in Q4 2026, with performance highly differentiated across pairs. The quarterly outlook sees continued US dollar and energy headwinds, while Asian growth remains resilient, led by…
Westpac argues that persistent administered price increases—council rates, electricity, insurance—have kept New Zealand core inflation near or above 3% for five years, leaving the RBNZ with little headroom even before the recent oil spike. Because these costs…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
The dollar index reached 101.61, close to June's 101.80 year-to-date high, before New York Fed President Williams pushed back against an October hike, saying there is "no need for urgency." Markets pared October hike pricing to about 12bp from 18bp. Williams…
Scotiabank's Derek Holt previews a data-heavy session that includes Canadian GDP for July and a Bank of Canada speech on repo markets and monetary policy implementation. He expects modest market moves, with US consumer confidence, JOLTS and Fed speakers also…
Japanese officials escalated verbal warnings against yen weakness, with the chief currency official citing a "very clear" message from Japan and the US and the finance minister calling yen undervaluation a problem. USD/JPY fell to an intra-day low of 156.51…
In the week to 22 September 2026, surging US Treasury yields and renewed Fed tightening expectations lifted the Dollar Index about 1% and prompted speculators to rebuild the aggregate dollar long from $5.9bn to $18.4bn. Yen longs were cut by 48k contracts…
MUFG argues the macro backdrop remains supportive of a stronger US dollar, with the dollar index near year-to-date highs and next resistance at the 24 June high of 101.80. Oil near USD110/bbl on stalled US-Iran talks keeps upward pressure on US yields;…
Global rates rose and pulled New Zealand along. Strong US data and resurgent oil pushed US yields higher, lifting NZ rates and cutting the trade-weighted index 4% below the RBNZ's September MPS assumption. Markets price about a 75% chance of an OCR hike on 28…
Westpac expects the RBA to hike the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% at its September meeting, with a split vote likely amid disagreement over trend supply capacity. August CPI is forecast at 0.4%mth with upside risk, trimmed mean at 0.2%mth. Employment rose 39.5k but…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
A Westpac survey of 92 clients shows 79% expect a 25bp OCR hike at the September 2026 RBNZ meeting, with market pricing at 90%. 64% anticipate a 3% year-end projection, while 55% see the OCR actually reaching 3%, with views skewed lower. Responses are split…
MUFG warns that a tougher external backdrop—higher US Treasury yields and Brent above $100/bbl—leaves Asia FX with a narrow path. The next US payrolls report is the key catalyst; consensus expects 100k jobs and unemployment at 4.1%. MUFG keeps a bias for…
The yen is the top performer after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said President Trump expressed concern over yen weakness, while Growth Minister Kiuchi noted the communication that rate hikes are on the radar. US Treasury yields fell modestly, tightly…
MUFG's FX quant framework argues the 2026 yen appreciation differs from past corrections: the traditional drivers of structural yen weakness have shifted. The US-Japan 10-year nominal yield differential has narrowed to roughly 209bps from about 399bps during…
The global fixed income sell-off continues without clear resolution, with the US dollar strengthening as US yields rose across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed roughly 60bps this month, approaching the scale of the March move after the…
Scotiabank's daily notes flag a 'funny season' for manipulated markets before the US midterms, with Trump jawboning oil lower on Iran talks despite unchanged nuclear stockpiles and war risk. Potash and diesel threats appear empty: Belarus has no surplus and a…
The US dollar strengthened modestly even as Brent crude fell around 4%, after US and Iranian officials met at the UN General Assembly and indirect talks were described as very productive. Optimism on a deal to halt the conflict, and reports Iran may reopen…