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ABN AMRO has downgraded its EUR/USD forecasts to 1.15 after the Fed hiked its policy rate by 25bp and signalled a more hawkish path than expected. The bank now sees the pair trading broadly sideways until Q2 2027, as higher-for-longer energy prices and…
The Fed hiked 25bp and the dot plot showed strong support for another hike this year, sending DXY up 0.6% to a two-month high and widening the two-year swap differential by 15bp. ING sees near-term USD upside, EUR/USD downside toward 1.132-1.135, BoE on hold…
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, with a hawkish message; markets price at least three more hikes by mid-2027. The dollar rallied, front-end Treasury yields rose, Wall Street fell while Europe advanced. Brent dropped below…
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, with a unanimous vote and upgraded forecasts signalling more tightening. Chair Warsh called financial conditions not particularly restrictive. The Fed dropped language attributing elevated inflation to supply shocks,…
The FOMC delivered a unanimous 25bp hike, lifting the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Policymakers cited resilient household spending, business investment and job growth, revising the median dot to 4.1% for end-2026 and end-2027, with PCE at 3.7% and core…
State Street expects range-bound G10 FX into September, with the US dollar likely to retrace higher over one to two months despite ranking last in its model. Growth outside the US beat depressed expectations, but energy risks persist. The Japanese yen is…
Brent held near USD 106/b (WTI above USD 102/b) after a 2.7% fall, as Saudi Arabia reportedly aims to restore about half the East-West pipeline capacity within days and full operations within six weeks, easing supply fears while Hormuz flows stay well below…
Japan's 2s10s JGB curve has widened through most of the BoJ's hiking cycle, driven by rising terminal-rate expectations, but has recently tightened to the mid-110bp range as the OIS market prices a hike every other meeting and a ~2.4% terminal rate. If those…
The FOMC raised the fed funds rate 25bp in September to a 3.875% midpoint, matching expectations, and the updated dot plot points to at least one more hike by year-end. Revised projections show PCE inflation slowing from 3.7%yr in 2026 to 2.0%yr by 2029, with…
The FOMC unanimously raised the fed funds rate 25bp to a 3.875% midpoint, with guidance pointing to at least one more move by year-end and 8 of 18 forecasters flagging additional hike risk by end-2027. US 2-year yields rose 7bp and the 10-year topped 5%; the…
The FOMC unanimously raised the target range 25bps to 3.75%-4% and guided at least one more hike this year, with a large minority seeing a further 2027 move. Two-year yields rose 14bps in a bear flattener, the dollar firmed and the S&P 500 fell about 0.75%.…
The Fed delivered a widely anticipated 25bp hike, leaving the long end broadly steady near 4.95%. ING maintains a bearish stance on long bonds, expecting the UST 10yr yield to break back above 5% and target 5.25%, supported by sticky inflation, fiscal…
The Fed raised the fed funds target 25bp by unanimous vote; the median dot implies one more hike in 2026 to 4.00-4.25% and none in 2027. Markets were disappointed the dot plot was not more forceful. Eight members wanted another 2027 hike versus six seeing no…
The FOMC raised the policy rate by 25bps to a 4.00% upper bound in a unanimous September decision, the first hike since 2023. Natixis views this as the path of least resistance that buys time to assess whether August's upside inflation surprise was temporary.…
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate 25bp to 3.75-4%, a unanimous decision, and its projections point to one more hike this year before holding at 4.125% through 2027. ING's base case is 'one and done' given labour slack, 3% wage growth and expected oil…
The FOMC is widely expected to raise the federal funds rate 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, a test of Chair Kevin Warsh's consensus-building. Oil strength from the US-Iran conflict adds near-term inflation pressure, but resilient growth, robust earnings and AI investment…
Scotiabank expects the FOMC to hike 25bps on September 16, 2026, with 94 of 110 consensus forecasts agreeing, though the bank calls the case weak and expects dissenters. Markets are calm: bonds and stocks rally, oil is lower, the dollar little changed. The…
One S&P 500 session now costs the same as 30 days of volatility, with three tenors within 0.07 points. The S&P 500 has used 70% of its weekly expected move, the Nasdaq 100 fund 79%, and the VIX 121%, all before the Federal Reserve decision priced at a ~94%…
US equities fell for a second session as a crude oil surge and the 10-year Treasury yield breaching 5% delivered a double shock to risk sentiment before the FOMC. Brent settled at USD108.75/bbl (+2.9%) and WTI at USD105.83/bbl (+4.4%), the highest closes…
Schroders keeps a pro-cyclical stance for September 2026, seeing low US recession risk and resilient earnings but rising, increasingly correlated risks. It stays positive on equities, commodities and government bonds, is tactically long the US 10-year, holds…