Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
Eurostat's final September estimate put euro area headline HICP at 3.8% y/y and 0.6% m/m, above Natixis' 3.5% call but matching the flash. Energy surged 18.9% y/y and 4.0% m/m, contributing 1.7pp and overtaking services as the largest driver. Core held at…
France's fiscal position resembles Italy in 2011 and Greece in 2009 on debt and deficit metrics, but it is not Greece in 2010: the current account is balanced, household savings are around 18%, and the effective interest rate on the debt stock remains below…
RBC Economics' October 2026 outlook shows policy rates and bond yields across seven economies. The Fed funds midpoint is projected to rise from 3.625% in late 2025 to 4.38% by Q3-26 and stay there through 2027. The Bank of Canada cuts to 2.25% by Q4-25, then…
Between 2015 and 2019, euro area goods exports from the major economies moved largely in tandem; since 2023, trajectories have diverged, with Southern European resilience tied to successive rotations across capital goods, chemicals, energy, manufactured and…
MUFG argues AI's capital-intensive expansion has become a singular secular theme pushing global capital markets into a new regime. Combined annual debt and equity issuance is seen exceeding $5 trillion in 2026 (equity $462bn, debt $3.6tn annualized), while…
Barclays' Green Budget chapter projects CPI inflation to average 3.1% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 before returning to 2% in 2028. Real GDP growth slows from 1.4% in 2026 to 1.2% in 2027, with unemployment rising to 5.7% and real earnings falling in both years.…
Spain's PM dissolved both houses of Parliament on 5 October 2026, calling early elections for 29 November. Natixis sees a likely shift from left to right, with a PP-led coalition including Vox. Spanish fundamentals remain solid, with growth above the euro…
The Iran war hurt EU chemical producers less than feared, with production, capacity use and margins improving, but the reprieve is temporary. By June, EU output was 0.5% lower year-on-year and about 24% below early 2022. Once Gulf supply routes normalise,…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, driven by AI-related capital spending. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK, and eurozone, expected to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, with risk of energy inflation broadening. Higher…
EU construction output is forecast to grow just 0.5% in 2026 after 1.8% decline in 2024 and 2.3% growth in 2025, per ING Research. Infrastructure and Germany's modest rebound (first growth since 2020, after a >10% fall over 2020-25) support activity, while…
Eurozone September inflation rose to 3.8% y/y, the highest since September 2023, driven by energy (+18.8% y/y). Core measures stayed contained, with HICP ex energy, food, alcohol and tobacco at 2.5%. Intesa Sanpaolo expects headline inflation to peak just…
This weekly calendar from Intesa Sanpaolo's research department lists macroeconomic releases and central bank events for October 5-9, 2026. Highlights include final September services PMIs for the eurozone, Germany, France, Italy and the UK, US ISM…
Eurostat's flash estimate put euro area headline HICP at 3.8% yoy in September, above Natixis's 3.5% forecast and up from 3.2% in August. Core inflation matched the 2.5% forecast, rising from 2.4%. Energy contributed the most at 1.70pp (18.82% yoy),…
European diesel imports face mounting pressure from a possible US export ban, the loss of Russian and Chinese supplies and low stocks. Since late February, crude is up 46% while European diesel has doubled. Europe, importing 46% of its diesel with 40% from…
Northwest European gas storage sits at 62% capacity, about 10bcm below year-ago levels, setting up a tight Q4-26 winter. Under the base case TTF averages €76/MWh, peaking at €80/MWh; an adverse cold winter scenario averages €122/MWh. The energy-driven shock…
Intesa Sanpaolo expects Italy's GDP to grow 0.9% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, with the unemployment rate revised to 5.5% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027. Services and exports drive activity, but productivity stagnates and structural gaps persist. Exports surprised on…
Eurozone ESI fell to 97.9 in September from 98.4, the first decline in four months, driven by consumer confidence dropping to -16.5 amid rising fuel prices. Manufacturing and services sentiment improved. Selling-price expectations rose only in manufacturing…
The ECB could raise rates in December unless the Gulf crisis resolves quickly, as energy costs push euro area inflation higher while consumption and confidence stay fragile. The UK and Japan are slowing but rate rises are still likely by year-end. In the US,…
Energy-market rebalancing is slipping further away. The partial Hormuz blockade, Red Sea disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep oil and gas prices elevated, lifting inflation and delaying rate cuts. Under the baseline, assuming oil below $80 from…
Natixis argues Germany's 2026 collective bargaining round should not trigger euro-area second-round effects. Nominal wage growth is forecast to slow to about 3.8% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 from 4.4% in 2025, with negotiated wages at 2.6% YoY in June 2026 and…