Interest rates and Key FX rates

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利率与关键汇率

RBC Economics10/13/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

RBC Economics' October 2026 outlook shows policy rates and bond yields across seven economies. The Fed funds midpoint is projected to rise from 3.625% in late 2025 to 4.38% by Q3-26 and stay there through 2027. The Bank of Canada cuts to 2.25% by Q4-25, then hikes from Q1-27 to 3.25% by Q4-27. EUR/USD falls to 1.05 in Q1-27-Q2-27, USD/CAD ends at 1.35 in Q4-27 and AUD/USD at 0.71.

Institution: RBC Economics
Published: 10/13/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

US policy rate troughs at 3.625% in late 2025, then rises to 4.38% by Q3-26 and stays flat through 2027.
The Bank of Canada cuts to 2.25% by Q4-25, holds through 2026, then hikes to 3.25% by Q4-27.
US 2-year yield peaks at 4.88% in Q3-26 and drifts to 4.80% by Q4-27.
EUR/USD slides from 1.08 in Q1-25 to 1.05 in Q1-27-Q2-27, then recovers to 1.10 by Q4-27.

Key numbers

US fed funds midpoint, Q3-26: 4.38%
Canada overnight rate, Q4-27: 3.25%
EUR/USD, Q1-27: 1.05
USD/CAD, Q4-27: 1.35
US 10-year yield, Q2-26: 4.44%

Main risks

RBC states information is believed factual but accuracy is not guaranteed, and views are subject to change.
Projections are end-of-period and may diverge from average rates over each quarter.
Yield paths for Australia and New Zealand are swaps, not government bonds, limiting direct comparability.

Corresponding source evidence

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