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ING's October 2026 Asia FX outlook sees more two-way risk in USD/CNY after the pair stabilised near 6.70, with 6.67 flagged as the likely lower end of this year's range and a 6.67-6.92 band for 2026. The won stays resilient on a broadening chip export boom,…
State Street expects the Bank of Canada to hold in October after September employment fell 68k and unemployment rose to 6.5%, and favors a March BoJ hike over December or January. US services ISM stayed solid at 54.9 while consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 near…
Eleven of fourteen volatility measures fell Friday, with front-end VIX1D down 11.62% to 9.05 and VIX at 14.84. SKEW rose 3.45% to 154.34, near its quarter high, on readable flow selling that wing. Implied correlation at 11.33 and dispersion at 36.02 sit in…
Long-term government bond yields are near multi-year highs across major economies, accompanied by elevated volatility. Amundi attributes the move to persistent inflation, monetary policy uncertainty, fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions affecting energy…
ING argues EUR/USD stays pressured in a new 1.10-1.15 range over three to six months, as solid US growth and a hawkish Fed combine with French budget unrest; the French episode is likened to Italy's 2018 election-driven debt stress rather than Greece's 2012…
ING's October 2026 EMEA FX outlook sees the region's currencies pressured by higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, but insulated by local rate hikes and light foreign positioning outside Hungary. It retains a broadly positive medium-term view on…
Geopolitical escalation in Riyadh and an unconfirmed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire barely moved FX. Markets instead focus on firm US growth, above-target inflation and a Fed 75bp hiking cycle, with upside risks to 0.2% MoM core September CPI. DXY…
A weekend attack on Riyadh airport briefly pushed Brent above USD 105.50 before it reversed to near USD 103.70, as resilient crude flows, Russia's partial diesel export ban lift and an energy ceasefire offset tensions. Gold stalled above USD 4,200 at USD…
Natixis argues that surging AI data center electricity demand, set to more than double globally from 415 TWh in 2024 to 945 TWh by 2030, will strain US, European and Japanese power infrastructure, where data centers could absorb 48%, 28% and 66% of…
OCBC's weekly macro view sees global demand stabilising unevenly, led by AI investment. The Fed keeps further rate hikes in play, supporting the USD but capping breakout odds, while French fiscal fears cap EUR upside. Indonesia's headline CPI rose to 3.3% YoY…
OCBC expects US September headline CPI at 0.6% MoM on fuel, with core at 0.2%, while Singapore's advance 3Q26 GDP is seen at 5.7% YoY and MAS is anticipated to steepen the S$NEER slope by 25bps to 1.5%. The 10-year UST yield closed at 5.243% and the S&P 500…
MUFG reports the dollar index consolidating just above 102 ahead of Wednesday's US September CPI, with the 2-year Treasury yield down about 20bp from its 29th September peak after softer PCE and NFP data. The rate market prices roughly 5bp of Fed hikes this…
The US dollar index stayed firm near 102.20 despite softer University of Michigan sentiment (46.3) and higher one-year inflation expectations (4.7%). Strong 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions capped long-end yields. India and Taiwan saw foreign equity…
The UAE economy contracted 2.1% y/y in Q2 2026, the first decline since the pandemic, despite 0.4% H1 growth. Oil, manufacturing, logistics, hospitality and trade drove the fall, while financial services grew double digits. PMI has recovered above 55 but…
Oil retreated as Trump signalled a Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" and proposed direct US diesel imports from Russia, with Brent down 1.1% to USD 103.60/b and WTI at USD 90/b. Middle East risk stayed elevated after a Strait of Hormuz tanker attack and…
Westpac NZ argues higher fuel costs, a weaker NZD and a soft housing market have shifted the near-term outlook. Annual CPI is expected to dip to 3.7% in September before rising to a three-year high of 4.2% by December, half a point above Westpac's prior…
Westpac's Australia and NZ Weekly argues that statistical revisions — to US PCE inflation, UK productivity and Canadian population — show measurement is imperfect and warrant humility in policy pronouncements. Australian data showed consumer sentiment down…
Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
MUFG's October 2026 outlook sees an AI-driven investment boom of at least $400bn above pre-AI trend, heavily concentrated in computer equipment with annual growth near 80%, yet broad demand growth remains only 2.5–3.5%, like the shallow post-GFC expansion.…
SMBC's October 2026 outlook sees real GDP growth decelerating from 2.6% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, with quarterly growth slowing from 3.9% in Q3 2026 to 1.6-1.7% through 2027. Core PCE inflation is projected to ease from 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 2.3% in…