UAE GDP Q 2 2026Middle East Macro

中文标题

阿联酋 2 年第四季度 GDP 2026 · 中东宏观

MUFG10/12/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

The UAE economy contracted 2.1% y/y in Q2 2026, the first decline since the pandemic, despite 0.4% H1 growth. Oil, manufacturing, logistics, hospitality and trade drove the fall, while financial services grew double digits. PMI has recovered above 55 but ports remain below pre-conflict levels and Dubai inflation averaged 4.6%. The Abu Dhabi pipeline bypasses Hormuz and the UAE left OPEC in May 2026, aiding oil exports. Tighter liquidity and Fed-linked rates weigh on the non-oil outlook.

Institution: MUFG
Published: 10/12/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI)
Time horizon: 2022 · Q2 2026 · near-term · May 2026

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI

Key arguments

Q2 2026 GDP contracted 2.1% y/y, the first decline since Covid-19, driven by oil, manufacturing, logistics, hospitality and trade.
Financial services offset weakness with double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive quarter; construction and real estate stayed positive but slowed sharply.
Non-oil recovery is contingent on geopolitics: PMI recovered above 55 but ports remain below pre-conflict levels and inflation averaged 4.6% in Jan-Aug 2026.
The Abu Dhabi pipeline bypasses Hormuz and the UAE left OPEC in May 2026, likely improving mining and quarrying in H2; tightening liquidity and Fed-linked rate rises are headwinds.

Key numbers

Q2 2026 real GDP y/y: -2.1%
H1 2026 real GDP y/y: 0.4%
UAE PMI September 2026: >55
Dubai CPI Jan-Aug 2026 average: 4.6%
Bank lending growth Q2 2026 y/y: 18.1%

Main risks

Non-oil recovery is highly contingent on regional geopolitical conditions; ports and flights remain disrupted.
Tightening liquidity from credit demand, foreign-currency deposit outflows and expiry of central bank support.
Rising local rates following the Federal Reserve add costs to the non-oil economy.

Corresponding source evidence

The Q2 estimate was the first contraction in the UAE economy since the Covid-19 pandemic and marks a substantial slowdown from the average pace of growth of 6.2% recorded over 2022-25. · 2022
GDP CONTRACTS IN Q2 2026 Source: Bloomberg, MUFG Research Oil production, manufacturing, logistics, hospitality and wholesale and retail trade, which represent 50% of the total UAE economy in real terms, were the primary contributors of the contraction in Q2 2026. · Q2 2026
Construction and real estate, which accounted for nearly 17% of total GDP in Q2 2026, reported a sharp slowdown in growth but still stayed in positive territory. · Q2 2026

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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