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The Eurozone ESI improved to 98.4 in August, the highest since January, with broad sector gains, signalling resilience despite fuel and gas risks, supporting an ECB rate hike in September that may be the last. GDP is seen growing ~0.3% q/q in H2 2026 and just…
Citi's report reviews the latest developments in EU and UK financial services regulation, focusing on digital finance, including the digital euro and digital pound projects, stablecoin regimes, crypto-asset regulation, fund tokenisation, AI, cybersecurity,…
Saxo Bank reports that the commodity rally broadened in August 2026, with precious metals and agriculture outperforming energy. The BCOM TR index is on track for its best month on record, up ~31% YTD. Precious metals rose ~15% on fiscal sustainability…
Intesa Sanpaolo expects the dollar to consolidate in the near term but sees a structurally weaker dollar over the medium term, with the yen having the best appreciation potential among major currencies if BoJ normalization continues and yield differentials…
Commerzbank reports that the German economy has turned upward, with GDP growing 0.35% per quarter on average over the last three quarters, equivalent to an annualized growth rate of 1.5%, exceeding the estimated potential growth of less than 1%.
Westpac's weekly analysis highlights an upside surprise in Australian July CPI, prompting an assessment of RBA policy risks, while solid household spending and mixed investment data precede Q2 GDP. Offshore, US consumer resilience contrasts with weak housing…
“Here is a quick overview of what I'll cover in my remarks this morning. You can call it an outline…you can call it a trail map…just don't call it forward guidance.” – Warsh at 2026 Jackson Hole Symposium Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech…
Commonwealth Bank economists revised their RBA cash rate forecast, now expecting a 0.25 percentage point hike in November 2026 to 4.60%, citing a broad-based July CPI upside surprise and persistent underlying inflation, despite slowing growth and a soft…
SEB's Nordic Outlook highlights resilient global growth with upward revisions, contained oil price effects but strained distillate markets, central banks diverging (Fed on hold, ECB hiking), improved Swedish growth forecasts with a Riksbank hike expected in…
SEB has increased its risk allocation in equity markets due to rising global growth, contained inflation, and a broader cyclical upswing. While geopolitical tensions related to Iran and higher energy prices persist, equity markets, particularly in Sweden,…
ING maintains its call for no Fed hikes this year despite mixed US data and hawkish market pricing, viewing the September FOMC as a conundrum. The dollar may find support ahead of Warsh's speech, while CAD faces further downside and AUD's gains are likely…
OCBC's Daily Treasury Outlook notes that US July CPI/PCE data came in hotter than expected, reviving rate-hike speculation and pushing Treasury yields higher. Nvidia's strong FY2028 revenue guidance supports the tech/AI upcycle in Asia. Geopolitical…
SMBC Nikko highlights that the expiration of pandemic-era stimulus funding (ESSER and SLFRF) will reduce public sector employment over the next year, with an estimated 214k total job losses, and provides forecasts for August NFP, private NFP, and unemployment.
Standard Chartered argues that structural bond market pressures—rising term premia from fiscal deficits, populism, and Fed opacity—are not being fully expressed in yields due to Treasury buybacks and financial repression. The adjustment is instead happening…
Invesco's Matt Brill discusses the investment grade credit market, highlighting strong corporate balance sheets, attractive all-in yields, and the impact of hyperscaler AI spending. He argues that credit markets remain diversified relative to equities, with…
RBC Economics maintains its base case for Canada's near-term growth despite new U.S. tariffs, but sees risks tilted to the downside due to potential trade escalation. Tariffs affect a small share of the economy, and fiscal support helps. The Bank of Canada is…
The ECB's July minutes show a growing internal support for a September rate hike, with the eurozone economy showing unexpected resilience and inflation risks tilted to the upside. However, the ECB is likely to limit itself to one more hike, as a restrictive…
UBS CIO notes that long-end Treasury yields are retreating from recent peaks due to Treasury buybacks and easing oil supply concerns, but structural forces—Fed uncertainty, AI-driven corporate debt issuance, and fiscal pressures—may keep long-term borrowing…
Saxo Bank's Market Quick Take highlights a firmer July PCE inflation print that solidified expectations for a December Fed rate hike, while Nvidia's strong earnings and guidance boosted AI-related equities but left broader markets mixed. Wheat hit a…
ING Think's latest Rates Spark report highlights mounting pressure on French OAT spreads due to political uncertainty and fiscal strain, while spillovers to other markets remain limited. The ECB's hawkish stance, persistent energy price pressures, and…