Macro · Macro Rapid Response Eurozone: ESI index at a high since January

Key arguments

• ESI rose to 98.4 in August from 96.9, the highest since January, though still below the long-term average.
• The improvement is widespread across industry, services, retail, construction, and consumer confidence.
• The resilience may be partly due to precautionary restocking after the Hormuz blockade; hiring intentions suggest firms see production increases as not temporary.
• Services sector shows better-than-expected resilience despite energy shock and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Risks from recent fuel price rises and future gas price increases warrant caution for growth and inflation.
• Selling price expectations remain controlled overall, with slight declines in manufacturing, wholesale/retail, and construction, while services rose modestly.
• This picture remains consistent with an ECB rate hike in September, which could be the last.
• Available surveys imply average GDP growth of about 0.3% q/q in H2 2026 and just under 1% for 2026 as a whole.

Corresponding source evidence

1. The available ESI and PMI surveys would be consistent with an average GDP growth of around 0.3% q/q in H2 2026. · H2 2026
2. the recent rise in fuel prices and the risks of higher gas prices in the coming months call for caution, both in terms of growth and inflation. · next months
3. the recovery in hiring intentions, at a high since 2023, suggests that firms do not view this increase in production as temporary. · current