Forex · Forex Flash The dollar consolidates, the yen remains vulnerable
中文标题
外汇动态
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Intesa Sanpaolo expects the dollar to consolidate in the near term but sees a structurally weaker dollar over the medium term, with the yen having the best appreciation potential among major currencies if BoJ normalization continues and yield differentials narrow. EUR/USD has a moderately bullish bias towards 1.18, GBP/USD remains supported, and CAD faces short-term weakening risks ahead of the BoC meeting.
- Institution
- Intesa Sanpaolo
- Published
- 08/28/2026
- Research topic
- Not explicitly stated
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- The 'weak USD/strong JPY' theme is supported by growing concerns over US fiscal trajectory and expectations of further monetary normalization in Japan.
- The euro is supported by the perception that the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle and by doubts over US fiscal sustainability.
- GBP remains one of the strongest G10 currencies due to upside surprises in UK data and persistently high inflation, which may lead to a more restrictive BoE stance.
- The dollar's recent recovery is seen as a technical consolidation, not the start of a new uptrend.
- CAD faces high volatility and short-term weakening risks unless the BoC provides constructive guidance on growth.
Key numbers
- EUR/USD forecast Q3 2026
- 1.1646
- EUR/USD forecast Q2 2028
- 1.178
- GBP/USD forecast Q3 2026
- 1.3619
- GBP/USD forecast Q2 2028
- 1.391
- USD/JPY forecast Q3 2026
- 159.55
- USD/JPY forecast Q2 2028
- 150.81
- USD/CAD forecast Q3 2026
- 1.418
- USD/CAD forecast Q2 2028
- 1.371
Main risks
- US fiscal trajectory and Treasury buyback programme expansion could further weaken the dollar.
- Higher US interest rates and Fed policy uncertainty may provide episodic dollar support.
- Middle East escalation could boost safe-haven currencies like CHF and JPY.
- Japanese intervention risk remains high if USD/JPY moves back above 160.
- US-Canada trade tensions and rising energy prices pose risks to CAD.
Corresponding source evidence
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AI analysis
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Intesa Sanpaolo on 08/28/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction