FX Daily: September Fed conundrum remains

中文标题

外汇日报：9月美联储难题仍未解

ING THINK08/27/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

ING maintains its call for no Fed hikes this year despite mixed US data and hawkish market pricing, viewing the September FOMC as a conundrum. The dollar may find support ahead of Warsh's speech, while CAD faces further downside and AUD's gains are likely limited near term but upbeat into year-end.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 08/27/2026
Research topic: Fed policy · FED · USD
Time horizon: September 16 · short-term (into speech) · short-term · September 18 · medium-term · year-end

FED · FED DXY · DXY EUR · EURUSD USD/JPY · USDJPY

Key arguments

Core PCE inflation matched expectations, suggesting gradual disinflation, supporting a Fed hold.
Markets pricing ~50% chance of a September hike could pressure the Fed to act to avoid bond volatility.
Strong Nvidia results and upbeat risk sentiment may limit USD downside ahead of Warsh's speech.
AUD is supported by hot inflation and strong spending, but RBA likely to hold, limiting gains.
CAD has further to fall due to US-Canada trade tensions.
A dovish Fed repricing is the most tangible path to keep USD/JPY below 160.

Key numbers

Core PCE MoM: 0.2%
Core PCE YoY: 3.3%
Headline PCE MoM: 0.2%
Headline PCE YoY: 3.7%
September FOMC hike pricing: 9bp
DXY support level: 99.0
EUR/USD range: 1.1640-70
Tokyo CPI forecast: 1.9% headline, 1.8% core

Main risks

If markets price ~50% chance of a hike, the Fed may hike to avoid bond volatility.
BoJ officials may disappoint on the dovish side even if they hike in September, weakening yen.
RBA might hike if inflation proves persistent, AUD could strengthen more than expected.
Energy price escalation from Russia-Ukraine could impact euro and global risk sentiment.
French election could introduce political risk for the euro.

Corresponding source evidence

Our concern is that, if markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance of a hike by decision day, the likelihood of a hike would increase, as the Committee may be reluctant to risk triggering bond market volatility. · September 16
DXY may find support above 99.0 into the speech despite some upbeat risk sentiment after strong Nvidia results. · short-term (into speech)
EUR/USD can stabilise around 1.1640-70 ahead of Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. · short-term

Conditions / invalidation

if markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance of a hike by decision day
if the Fed reprices dovish
if the Fed is dovish