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The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote; three members preferred a 25bp hike to 4.00%. The MPC raised its near-term inflation outlook, expecting CPI around 3.75% in 4Q26 versus 3.2% in July, and slightly above 4% in early 2027, citing…
RBC expects headline durable goods orders to rise 0.2% m/m in August, with core orders up 0.7% on computer and electrical equipment tied to the AI buildout. Nonresidential investment, led by data center construction, has added nearly one percentage point to…
Brent fell for a third session toward USD 104/b and WTI near USD 101/b as Saudi Arabia restores its damaged East-West pipeline, targeting roughly half of capacity within days, while some tanker traffic continues through Hormuz. Gold held near USD 4,350/oz…
BoJ raised its policy rate to around 1.25% on a 7-2 vote, the fastest three-month cadence of its tightening cycle. MUFG judges the hike lacks hawkish impact: it merely confirms the July Outlook baseline rather than responding to new upside risks. Pressure…
The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 6-3 vote, but signaled a November hike is possible if energy prices stay high. ING's base case remains a hold if energy cools, with a cut possible in 2027. The Bank expects inflation to peak just above 4% early…
ING expects the National Bank of Hungary to pause at its 21 September meeting, holding the base rate at 5.50%. Although inflation is still favourable, rising external inflation risk and an expected cut in the inflation target from 3% to 2% in two stages argue…
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and volatility split: MOVE fell 3.56% to 80.73 while VIX rose 2.97% to 17.71. The S&P 500 has used 103% of its priced weekly range to the downside with two sessions left. Saxo reads the move…
The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members preferring a hike. The statement flagged upside inflation risks greater than in July while noting little evidence so far of material second-round effects; November pricing slipped…
Eurostat's final estimate puts euro area headline HICP at 3.25% yoy in August, up from 2.94% in July, with core easing to 2.40% from 2.48%. Energy jumped to 14.28% yoy, contributing 1.30 pp, mainly liquid fuels at 1.04 pp, while services slowed to 3.03% yoy…
ABN AMRO has downgraded its EUR/USD forecasts to 1.15 after the Fed hiked its policy rate by 25bp and signalled a more hawkish path than expected. The bank now sees the pair trading broadly sideways until Q2 2027, as higher-for-longer energy prices and…
China's 15th Five-Year Plan treats AI simultaneously as a productivity driver, a technological sovereignty instrument and a military capability, coordinating policy across the entire stack. Beijing has closed much of the gap with the US while spending a…
The Fed hiked 25bp and the dot plot showed strong support for another hike this year, sending DXY up 0.6% to a two-month high and widening the two-year swap differential by 15bp. ING sees near-term USD upside, EUR/USD downside toward 1.132-1.135, BoE on hold…
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, with a hawkish message; markets price at least three more hikes by mid-2027. The dollar rallied, front-end Treasury yields rose, Wall Street fell while Europe advanced. Brent dropped below…
Westpac argues Asian growth forecasts have been revised higher, yet regional currencies have largely failed to reflect these fundamentals. Capital allocation decisions increasingly offset trade strength. India's FCNR(B) scheme attracted US$127.2bn in…
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, with a unanimous vote and upgraded forecasts signalling more tightening. Chair Warsh called financial conditions not particularly restrictive. The Fed dropped language attributing elevated inflation to supply shocks,…
The FOMC delivered a unanimous 25bp hike, lifting the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Policymakers cited resilient household spending, business investment and job growth, revising the median dot to 4.1% for end-2026 and end-2027, with PCE at 3.7% and core…
State Street expects range-bound G10 FX into September, with the US dollar likely to retrace higher over one to two months despite ranking last in its model. Growth outside the US beat depressed expectations, but energy risks persist. The Japanese yen is…
Brent held near USD 106/b (WTI above USD 102/b) after a 2.7% fall, as Saudi Arabia reportedly aims to restore about half the East-West pipeline capacity within days and full operations within six weeks, easing supply fears while Hormuz flows stay well below…
Japan's 2s10s JGB curve has widened through most of the BoJ's hiking cycle, driven by rising terminal-rate expectations, but has recently tightened to the mid-110bp range as the OIS market prices a hike every other meeting and a ~2.4% terminal rate. If those…
The FOMC raised the fed funds rate 25bp in September to a 3.875% midpoint, matching expectations, and the updated dot plot points to at least one more hike by year-end. Revised projections show PCE inflation slowing from 3.7%yr in 2026 to 2.0%yr by 2029, with…