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This weekly note reviews two developments in New Zealand: an upbeat Pre-Election Fiscal Update and a generally resilient September business confidence reading. No specific figures, forecasts or market calls are provided in the available text. The publication…
MUFG forecasts September 2026 US nonfarm payrolls at +90k, slightly above the 85k Bloomberg consensus and the 71k three-month average. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%, though a monthly uptick in job losses could push it to 4.2%. A…
US Treasuries fell for a seventh straight session, with the 10-year yield hitting 5.3% and the 30-year at a 24-year high, driven by Middle East conflict, robust US activity, AI-driven debt issuance and fiscal deficits. UBS CIO deems market pricing of nearly…
France's budget buys time but leaves structural deficits unresolved, keeping OAT-Bund spreads at risk of widening from 130bp toward 150bp. History suggests the euro's muted reaction could reverse, with a 3% risk premium buildup implying EUR/USD at 1.110 and…
European diesel imports face mounting pressure from a possible US export ban, the loss of Russian and Chinese supplies and low stocks. Since late February, crude is up 46% while European diesel has doubled. Europe, importing 46% of its diesel with 40% from…
SMBC's Joseph Lavorgna projects real GDP growth easing from 2.3% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027, with a sharp Q4 2026 slowdown to 0.7% after 5.1% in Q3. Core PCE is forecast to fall from 3.1% to 2.3% by Q4 2027, allowing the Fed funds upper bound to be cut to…
Equities remain supported by strong nominal growth, looser fiscal policy, the AI boom and higher defence spending, but rising oil prices and bond yields are testing that resilience. The author sees markets in a first phase where higher yields raise the bar…
ING estimates AI explains about 20% of the rise in long-dated US rates: 70% of that via productivity, 25% via issuance, 5% via spending. Higher long-end issuance pressure comes mainly from TMT corporates, with a $75bn swing in long-dated corporate versus…
US 2Q GDP was revised up to 2.2% q/q saar and September ADP payrolls rose by 90,000, while August headline PCE slowed to 3.4% y/y and core PCE held at 3.0%. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.2849% and the DXY was broadly unchanged. Equities closed mixed.…
On 17 September the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 6–3 vote, but several hold voters said the case for tightening was building. The Bank expects inflation near 3.75% in Q4 and slightly above 4% in early 2027, driven by energy. August CPI rose to…
The ECB raised all three policy rates by 25bp in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, citing persistent inflation and stronger growth. Euro area inflation was 3.2% y/y with core at 2.4%, while the composite PMI rose to 53.1. Money markets now price…
Natixis's September 2026 US dual mandate snapshot: August payrolls rebounded 162k, broadly based, erasing earlier soft prints, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m and headline 0.4% m/m. Because most policymakers already saw labor as near…
The Eurosystem is advancing the retail digital euro alongside the Pontes and Appia projects to keep central bank money relevant as payments digitalise and cash use declines. Two safeguards aim to limit disintermediation: a maximum holding balance, with some…
Czech industrial PMI edged down to 53.5 in September but stayed in expansion, with output and new orders rising on domestic and export demand. Job creation was the fastest since April 2022, easing unemployment concerns. Input costs rose on energy and…
France's 2027 draft budget targets a 5% deficit via €43bn of measures, but debt still rises to 121.7% of GDP in 2027. A modified budget passed via Article 49.3 is the likely path after difficult negotiations. The 10-year OAT-Bund spread has topped 130bp and…
EURUSD hit new one-year lows, driven mainly by broad USD strength, while the euro has only begun to reflect Eurozone sovereign stress. The France-Germany 10-year yield spread widened above 130bp from roughly 85bp in early September. French 10-year yields…
The US dollar has gained 1.0-2.4% against major currencies since 17 September, driven by widening interest-rate differentials in favour of the US. EUR/USD fell over 3% from 1.17 to below its 24 June low of 1.1325, with next support at 1.10. Markets price…
The DXY dollar index is testing the year's highs near 101.80 as firm US activity data and ADP payroll signals keep Fed tightening expectations intact, despite a softer August PCE print. EUR/USD is at the year's lows, vulnerable to a deeper French OAT-Bund…
Oil softened with NYMEX WTI under $90/bbl as Saudi Yanbu loadings resumed and EIA reported a 922k-barrel US crude build, versus a 455k-barrel draw expected. Gasoline and distillate stocks fell 1.68m and 2.25m barrels. LME copper rose a third month on tight…
Global markets in late September 2026 show a synchronized hawkish pivot: the FOMC, ECB and BoJ have all hiked rates, pushing UST 10Y to a 2026 high of 5.24%, mostly from higher real yields. OCBC adds a 25bp Fed hike in 4Q2026, one BoE hike by year-end, two…