FX Weekly - Higher rates support the dollar
中文标题
外汇周报 - 利率上升支撑美元
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
The US dollar has gained 1.0-2.4% against major currencies since 17 September, driven by widening interest-rate differentials in favour of the US. EUR/USD fell over 3% from 1.17 to below its 24 June low of 1.1325, with next support at 1.10. Markets price almost four Fed hikes by end-2027 versus ABN AMRO's one, and over three ECB hikes versus two. ABN AMRO maintains its end-2026 EUR/USD forecast of 1.15, but notes risks are increasingly tilted to the downside.
- Institution
- ABN AMRO Research
- Published
- 10/01/2026
- Research topic
- US Dollar (DXY) · Fed Policy
- Time horizon
- year-end 2026 · year-end 2027
Key arguments
- Widening US interest-rate differentials have re-emerged as the dominant driver of major currencies, with the two-year and ten-year nominal and real differentials moving in favour of the dollar.
- EUR/USD downside should be limited because markets price almost four Fed hikes by end-2027 versus ABN AMRO's forecast of one; convergence toward the house view would weigh more on the dollar than the euro.
- Upside for EUR/USD is constrained by expectations of prolonged high energy prices, which historically weigh more on the euro and yen than the dollar.
- Political uncertainty from US midterms and French elections in April 2027, plus fiscal scrutiny in the US, eurozone and UK, should partly offset each other and keep EUR/USD range-bound.
Key numbers
- USD gain vs major currencies since 17 Sept
- 1.0%-2.4%
- EUR/USD decline from 1.17 since 20 Aug
- more than 3%
- Next EUR/USD support level
- 1.10
- Fed hikes priced by end-2027 vs ABN AMRO forecast
- almost 4 vs 1
- ECB hikes priced by end-2027 vs ABN AMRO forecast
- more than 3 vs 2
Main risks
- Risks to the EUR/USD forecast are increasingly tilted to the downside after the recent loss of momentum.
- High energy prices could persist longer than expected and weigh more heavily on the euro than the dollar.
- US midterm elections and French elections in April 2027, along with fiscal concerns in the US, eurozone and UK, could generate offsetting currency pressures.
Corresponding source evidence
Wider US interest-rate differentials have driven the dollar rally.
Downside in EUR/USD is protected but the upside is constrained.
We maintain our EUR/USD forecast of 1.15 for end 2026 Since our previous FX Weekly on 17 September, the US dollar has strengthened considerably.
· year-end 2026
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · DXY
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABN AMRO ResearchFX Weekly - Higher rates support the dollar | 10/01/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| NatixisAIR - The Winner Takes Portugal (And A Load of Debt) | 10/19/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| ING THINKfx daily inflation versus ai overbuild story dominates | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| MUFGcombined 16 oct 2026 | 10/16/2026 | Bearish | — | this week |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ABN AMRO Research on 10/01/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction